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Strong July Jobs Report From ADP Points to Even Better Government Numbers

John Zappe
Jul 31, 2013, 12:43 pm ET

Change in employment July 2013 adpThe summer of 2013 is turning out to the best in years for the U.S. economy as more jobs have so far been added in June and July than in any of the years since the start of the recession.

With the news this morning from ADP and its data analysis partner Moody’s Analytics that the private sector added 200,000 in July and that June’s hiring was 10,000 better than initially reported, the total new jobs created in the last 60 days is 398,000. keep reading…

The Unemployment Bias: The Long-term Unemployed Face Severe Discrimination

Raghav Singh
Jul 30, 2013, 5:55 am ET

Last year I did some work for a large company that decided it would not hire anyone who was unemployed. It would automatically reject any candidate who had been unemployed even for a day. As I’ve learned, this attitude toward candidates is pervasive — many employers seem to have concluded that the long-term jobless are damaged goods. keep reading…

Fed Reserve Economists Say Two More Years Before We Get Back to ‘Normal’

John Zappe
Jul 22, 2013, 1:56 pm ET

fed reserve labor market chartUnless new economic shocks should upset the rate of improvement, it will take at least two more years before the U.S. labor market returns to its historic norms.

Crunching together 23 different labor market indicators, two economists with the sometimes-contrarian Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City said that though the rate of change is well above the average of the last 20 years, it hasn’t translated into an equivalent rate of improvement in labor market conditions.

What that means is that despite the acceleration in job creation, temp hiring, job availability, and other labor market measures, the national unemployment rate will continue to decline only slowly. keep reading…

Employers Expect No Change in Hiring of Permanent, Fulltimers, But More Plan to Add Temps

John Zappe
Jul 11, 2013, 5:44 pm ET

CareerBuilder forecast 7.2013The number of employers planning to hire full-time permanent workers by the end of the year is unchanged from a year ago, though the number expecting to bring on temporary workers is up by half, says CareerBuilder’s mid-year hiring forecast.

The just released CareerBuilder forecast, based on a survey of 2,000 hiring managers and HR professionals conducted six weeks ago, found:

  • 44 percent of employers plan to hire full-time, permanent employees, on par with last year;
  • 25 percent plan to hire part-time employees, up from 21 percent last year;
  • 31 percent plan to hire temporary or contract workers, up from 21 percent last year

The optimism, however, doesn’t necessarily translate into immediate hiring plans. Only 30 percent of the respondents said they expected to add to their full-time, permanent headcount this quarter. That’s identical to what the survey respondents said a year ago, and is off from the 34 percent adding full-time headcount last quarter. keep reading…

New Rite of Passage for Teens: Summer Unemployment

John Zappe
Jul 10, 2013, 6:05 am ET

Summer teen hiring 2013A summer job used to be one of those rites of passage for teenagers. Like moving from middle school to high school, and Pop Warner to varsity, working at the local mall, or lifeguarding at the city pool has for many teens become as rare as a drive-in movie.

Though outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas says the 2013 teen hiring season could still equal last year’s 1.397 million, it would take a July surge not seen since 2010. That July, 457,000 teens between 16 and 19 found jobs, a number tempered by such a slow May hiring month that 2010 saw the fewest teenagers in the decade to find jobs.

“In 2010, employers added just 960,000 16- to 19-year-olds over the entire summer hiring period from May through July,” says John Challenger,  CEO of the global firm. “Hiring has already surpassed that level this year and, if history is any indication, teen employment is likely to grow by another 300,000 to 400,000 in July.” keep reading…

U.S. Added 195K Jobs in June; Unemployment Unchanged at 7.6%

John Zappe
Jul 5, 2013, 9:43 am ET

Econ indices June 2013For the second consecutive month, the U.S. created 195,000 new jobs last month, well above economists estimates and breaking the summer hiring slowdown that has bedeviled the economy since the beginning of the recession.

The U.S. Department of Labor, which released its monthly employment report this morning, also adjusted upward its job counts for April and May, saying 70,000 more non-farm jobs were created than initially reported. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.6 percent.

Surveys of economists over the last week put their average estimates of June’s new jobs at about 165,000. Many had expected the unemployment rate to decline slightly, but an influx of new workers into the labor force last month held the rate steady.

Robert Murphy, an economics professor at Boston College, told ABC News that this morning’s jobs report “is good news that the recovery may now be on a sustained path.” keep reading…

ADP Report Raises Hopes Economy Can Avoid Summer Hiring Slowdown

John Zappe
Jul 3, 2013, 12:50 pm ET

ADP sector changes June 2013ADP’s National Employment Report this morning that 188,000 new private sector jobs were created last month is giving rise to hopes the summer slowdown that has so bedeviled the U.S. economy the last several years may not return this year.

That would be good news indeed, since the last three summers have seen job growth numbers plummet. Two years ago, job growth averaged 184,000 monthly for March, April, and May. For the summer months of June, July and August, the average was 88,000. Last year was better; the summer decline was only 12,000 jobs. keep reading…

Temp Industry Creating Jobs at 5 Times National Pace

John Zappe
Jun 11, 2013, 4:24 pm ET

Temp Workers 2000-2013With the addition of 25,600 temp workers to the nation’s payroll in May, there are now more workers employed as temps than at any time since before the start of the 21st century.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that on a seasonally adjusted basis some 2,679,800 people were employed as temporary workers in the U.S. last month. In the last year, the temp sector has averaged 15,500 new hires a month. Since the recession ended in June 2009, the average is just over 16,000 a month.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, temp workers numbered 2,659,300 in May, not far off from the record 2,767,300 temps working in October 2006. keep reading…

Today’s, and This Week’s, Jobs Numbers Offer Good News

Todd Raphael
Jun 7, 2013, 8:49 am ET

Screen Shot 2013-06-06 at 9.30.34 PMToday’s jobs report was supposed to be the “most important in years.” But if I’ve learned anything from watching and reading so many years of monthly-jobs-report commentaries, it’s not to get too worked about any one month of these things. Three-month averages, perhaps.

Nonetheless, it was good to see the economy meet and slightly exceed expectations, as this morning’s numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed an increase in 175,000 jobs. The expectation was for about 165,000-170,000. The unemployment rate was up but just slightly, to 7.6 percent. Last month’s numbers were revised downward slightly.

The upshot of all this is that the jobs news is not off-the-charts wonderful, but pretty good.

That has been the story throughout this week, if you had to look at all the data coming out and draw conclusions. The ADP report this week was a bit underwhelming. So was Gallup’s data that “fewer people worked full-time for an employer this May compared with a year ago.” But, other recent reports are mildly optimistic: keep reading…

3 Reasons to Be in Good Spirits About the Job Market

Todd Raphael
May 14, 2013, 1:07 pm ET

Screen Shot 2013-05-14 at 9.45.07 AMYou know what’s been happening seemingly every year, the last several: we start out the year talking about how the economy and job market are improving, and then as the year goes on, we start talking about how they are not.

Perhaps that won’t be the case this year, says Toby Dayton, from the job search engine LinkUp. Dayton is “cautiously optimistic” about a decent second, third, and fourth quarter of 2013.

Dayton, speaking at the Recruiting Innovation Summit in San Francisco, gives these three reasons for his optimism, based on LinkUp’s data showing growth in job posts and recruitment advertising: keep reading…

April’s 165,000 Jobs Growth Shows Recovery Demise “Grossly Exaggerated”

John Zappe
May 3, 2013, 9:45 am ET

Econ index April 2013After a mediocre jobs report from ADP on Wednesday, and the government’s own anemic March report last month, economists and the financial markets were hoping today’s report on April employment would make it at least into six digits.

No worries. The report from the U.S. Department of Labor this morning said 165,000 new non-farm jobs were created last month, while the unemployment rate declined slightly to 7.5 percent, even as the size of the workforce ticked up slightly. (It is still lower than at any time in more than three decades.)

The government also adjusted up its initial numbers for both February and March, increasing the new job estimates by a combined 114,000. With the revisions, job growth in the first quarter totaled 618,000. That’s just slightly behind the 208,000 monthly average during all of last year.

The April job growth was better than analysts were expecting. Before the release in Washington, surveys of economists showed them expecting job growth to be in a range between about 125,000 and 155,000. keep reading…

April ADP Job Growth Is Smallest in 7 Months

John Zappe
May 1, 2013, 12:28 pm ET

ADP April 2013 job growth chartThe news about April’s job growth is not looking good. Economists were predicting a mediocre month even before ADP released its estimates this morning, but the company’s numbers took even the more bearish of them by surprise.

The HR services firm, which handles payrolls for more than 20 percent of the U.S. workforce, reported that the nation added 119,000 private sector jobs in April. ADP lowered its March number from 158,000 to 131,000 jobs. Surveys of labor economists had the consensus estimates of the April ADP number in a range of 150,000 to 155,000.

The ADP report is seen by investors and economists as a predictor of the official government employment report that will be released Friday by the U.S. Labor Department. Because of different counting methods (the government uses a survey, ADP uses actual payroll information) and the inclusion of government jobs in the Labor Department numbers, the two jobs reports rarely synch up precisely. However, both are closely watched for signs of employment trends.

“While it cannot be said enough that the ADP report, while helpful, is hardly a perfect guide to Friday’s payroll report, weakness in the number is never welcome,” Dan Greenhaus, an analyst with BTIG LLC, an institutional brokerage firm, told The Washington Post. “And by and large, that’s what today’s report was; weak.” keep reading…

Big Slowdown in Hiring Last Month With Only 88,000 Jobs Created; SHRM Sees Improvement This Month

John Zappe
Apr 5, 2013, 9:52 am ET

Econ index March 2013It is not going to be a good day in the financial markets. The government this morning reported that March saw only 88,000 non-farm jobs added to the U.S. economy, the worst showing since last June and far below the 200,000 range economists were anticipating.

European financial markets dropped sharply after the Labor Department released the numbers, hitting a one-month low. In the U.S., Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 143 points and S&P 500 futures were down nearly 17 points in the minutes after the 8:30 a.m. report.

Investors were poised to act quickly, put on the alert Wednesday when ADP’s monthly estimate of private sector job growth came in at 158,000, which was also significantly below what economists expected. “This is very weak labor market,” economist Martin Feldstein told CNBC after the report was issued. keep reading…

CareerBuilder Forecast: Companies Expect to Hire Fewer Workers

John Zappe
Apr 4, 2013, 12:10 am ET

CareerBuilderHiring is slowing from last year, and the trend is predicted to continue at least through the rest of the first half of the year, says a new report from CareerBuilder.

The job board’s quarterly employment forecast says the U.S. should expect somewhat slower hiring through the end of June than it saw for the same period last year. That comes on the heels of a first quarter that was slightly better than what CareerBuilder’s survey foresaw three months ago, but which was still down from 2012. keep reading…

ADP’s 158k March Jobs Report Surprises Economists Who Were Predicting More

John Zappe
Apr 3, 2013, 11:32 am ET

ADP Change-in-Nonfarm-Private-Employment-March-2013ADP says the U.S. economy added 158,000 private sector jobs in March, an estimate well below what economists were expecting, and a drop of almost 80,000 from the revised February number. It’s the smallest job growth reported by the HR services and payroll processing company since October.

Surveys of labor economists done before today’s report was released showed they were optimistic about March’s job growth. Bloomberg’s survey put the average prediction of 39 economists at 200,000.  USA Today estimated 215,000.

However, no growth in construction jobs and a big slowdown in hiring since February in the trade, transportation, and utilities sectors kept job growth below the last few months, and just barely above the average of 152,000 for the last 12 months, as reported by ADP and its report partner, Moody’s Analytics. keep reading…

Recovery Being Hurt by Too Many Temp and Low-paying New Jobs, Says Fed Banker

John Zappe
Mar 25, 2013, 5:25 pm ET

Average pay increasesA member of the Federal Reserve Board is complaining that too many of the new jobs created since the recovery began are low-wage, part-time, temporary, or all three.

Speaking last week at a conference in Washington, D.C., Fed Governor Sarah Raskin said, “Flexible and part-time arrangements can present great opportunities to some workers, but the substantial increase in part-time workers does raise a number of concerns.” These include, she said, a lack of benefits, lower pay rates, and, often, no sick or personal days off.

Two-thirds of the jobs lost in the recession, she said, “were in moderate-wage occupations, such as manufacturing, skilled construction, and office administration jobs.” But fewer than a quarter have come back. “Recent job gains,” she observed, “have been largely concentrated in lower-wage occupations such as retail sales, food preparation, manual labor, home health care, and customer service.” keep reading…

February’s 236,000 New Jobs a Surprise; Unemployment Down to 7.7%

John Zappe
Mar 8, 2013, 9:41 am ET

Econ indicators Feb.2013Economists were surprised and investors pleased by a jobs report this morning that said 236,000 jobs were created in February, which helped bring the U.S. unemployment down to 7.7%.

Every survey conducted before the numbers were released by the Labor Department had the average prediction showing between about 150,000 and 165,000 jobs added in February. Most also predicted that January’s 7.9% unemployment rate wouldn’t change. ADP’s job count, prepared by Moody’s Analytics and released Wednesday, came the closest to today’s numbers, reporting 198,000 private sector jobs were created during the month.

The private sector created 246,000 non-farm jobs, with the biggest gains coming in: keep reading…

ADP Report Says U.S. Added 198,000 New Jobs In February

John Zappe
Mar 6, 2013, 11:30 am ET

ADP report Feb 2013Two days before the government releases its preliminary job count for February, ADP says the U.S. added 198,000 private sector jobs during the month.

The company, which processes the payrolls for hundreds of thousands of U.S. firms and provides other HR-related services, also upped its initial January report from 192,000 to 215,000 new jobs.

The report surprised analysts. A survey of economists by Bloomberg News put the average of their estimates at 170,000. That same survey predicts that the report to be released Friday morning by the U.S. Department of Labor will show 167,000 new jobs last month. (The Labor Department’s report includes government jobs; the ADP report does not.) keep reading…

January Jobs Up 157,000; Revisions Push 2012 Job Growth Over 2 Million

John Zappe
Feb 1, 2013, 9:35 am ET

Econ indices 1.2013No real surprises in this morning’s jobs report from the Labor Department. The U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs in January, most, as usual, in the services sector. Unemployment, meanwhile, crept up to 7.9% from 7.8%.

Economists were mostly expecting the numbers. Most estimates earlier in the week averaged out between about 160,000 and 165,000 new jobs. They had predicted December’s 7.8% unemployment rate would be unchanged. A Forbes survey suggested the rate might decrease to 7.7%.

In terms of actual numbers, 12.3 million Americans remain out of work, with 4.7 million of them unemployed for more than six months. Another 8 million are working at part-time jobs because they can’t find full time employment.

The January jobs gain is the smallest since September’s 138,000, but the report did up the jobs numbers for both December and November by a combined 127,000. keep reading…

Strong January Jobs Numbers Help Offset Other Economic News

John Zappe
Jan 30, 2013, 1:47 pm ET

ADP v. BLS employment changeThe U.S. added more new jobs this month than economists had expected, to some extent offsetting the surprising news that the economy contracted during the last quarter of 2012.

The two economic reports out today offer a picture of growth that’s changed little in the last few years; two steps forward and one back. The ADP National Employment Report says employers, principally smaller firms with fewer than 50 workers, added a net of 192,000 jobs in January. The average estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News showed they were expecting ADP to 165,000 private sector jobs were added. Meanwhile, the U.S. Commerce Department said the economy shrank by an annualized .1 percent, hurt by a combination of factors that analysts said were more one-time events than any precursor of further contraction.

“Nothing’s changed. I think the economy is still growing at 2 to 2.5 percent,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, ADP’s partner in producing the monthly jobs reports. “I think a lot of things conspired in the fourth quarter.” keep reading…