Today’s jobs report was supposed to be the “most important in years.” But if I’ve learned anything from watching and reading so many years of monthly-jobs-report commentaries, it’s not to get too worked about any one month of these things. Three-month averages, perhaps.
Nonetheless, it was good to see the economy meet and slightly exceed expectations, as this morning’s numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed an increase in 175,000 jobs. The expectation was for about 165,000-170,000. The unemployment rate was up but just slightly, to 7.6 percent. Last month’s numbers were revised downward slightly.
The upshot of all this is that the jobs news is not off-the-charts wonderful, but pretty good.
That has been the story throughout this week, if you had to look at all the data coming out and draw conclusions. The ADP report this week was a bit underwhelming. So was Gallup’s data that “fewer people worked full-time for an employer this May compared with a year ago.” But, other recent reports are mildly optimistic: keep reading…
You know what’s been happening seemingly every year, the last several: we start out the year talking about how the economy and job market are improving, and then as the year goes on, we start talking about how they are not.
Perhaps that won’t be the case this year, says Toby Dayton, from the job search engine LinkUp. Dayton is “cautiously optimistic” about a decent second, third, and fourth quarter of 2013.
Dayton, speaking at the Recruiting Innovation Summit in San Francisco, gives these three reasons for his optimism, based on LinkUp’s data showing growth in job posts and recruitment advertising: keep reading…
After a mediocre jobs report from ADP on Wednesday, and the government’s own anemic March report last month, economists and the financial markets were hoping today’s report on April employment would make it at least into six digits.
No worries. The report from the U.S. Department of Labor this morning said 165,000 new non-farm jobs were created last month, while the unemployment rate declined slightly to 7.5 percent, even as the size of the workforce ticked up slightly. (It is still lower than at any time in more than three decades.)
The government also adjusted up its initial numbers for both February and March, increasing the new job estimates by a combined 114,000. With the revisions, job growth in the first quarter totaled 618,000. That’s just slightly behind the 208,000 monthly average during all of last year.
The April job growth was better than analysts were expecting. Before the release in Washington, surveys of economists showed them expecting job growth to be in a range between about 125,000 and 155,000. keep reading…
The news about April’s job growth is not looking good. Economists were predicting a mediocre month even before ADP released its estimates this morning, but the company’s numbers took even the more bearish of them by surprise.
The HR services firm, which handles payrolls for more than 20 percent of the U.S. workforce, reported that the nation added 119,000 private sector jobs in April. ADP lowered its March number from 158,000 to 131,000 jobs. Surveys of labor economists had the consensus estimates of the April ADP number in a range of 150,000 to 155,000.
The ADP report is seen by investors and economists as a predictor of the official government employment report that will be released Friday by the U.S. Labor Department. Because of different counting methods (the government uses a survey, ADP uses actual payroll information) and the inclusion of government jobs in the Labor Department numbers, the two jobs reports rarely synch up precisely. However, both are closely watched for signs of employment trends.
“While it cannot be said enough that the ADP report, while helpful, is hardly a perfect guide to Friday’s payroll report, weakness in the number is never welcome,” Dan Greenhaus, an analyst with BTIG LLC, an institutional brokerage firm, told The Washington Post. “And by and large, that’s what today’s report was; weak.” keep reading…
It is not going to be a good day in the financial markets. The government this morning reported that March saw only 88,000 non-farm jobs added to the U.S. economy, the worst showing since last June and far below the 200,000 range economists were anticipating.
European financial markets dropped sharply after the Labor Department released the numbers, hitting a one-month low. In the U.S., Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 143 points and S&P 500 futures were down nearly 17 points in the minutes after the 8:30 a.m. report.
Investors were poised to act quickly, put on the alert Wednesday when ADP’s monthly estimate of private sector job growth came in at 158,000, which was also significantly below what economists expected. “This is very weak labor market,” economist Martin Feldstein told CNBC after the report was issued. keep reading…
Hiring is slowing from last year, and the trend is predicted to continue at least through the rest of the first half of the year, says a new report from CareerBuilder.
The job board’s quarterly employment forecast says the U.S. should expect somewhat slower hiring through the end of June than it saw for the same period last year. That comes on the heels of a first quarter that was slightly better than what CareerBuilder’s survey foresaw three months ago, but which was still down from 2012. keep reading…
ADP says the U.S. economy added 158,000 private sector jobs in March, an estimate well below what economists were expecting, and a drop of almost 80,000 from the revised February number. It’s the smallest job growth reported by the HR services and payroll processing company since October.
Surveys of labor economists done before today’s report was released showed they were optimistic about March’s job growth. Bloomberg’s survey put the average prediction of 39 economists at 200,000. USA Today estimated 215,000.
However, no growth in construction jobs and a big slowdown in hiring since February in the trade, transportation, and utilities sectors kept job growth below the last few months, and just barely above the average of 152,000 for the last 12 months, as reported by ADP and its report partner, Moody’s Analytics. keep reading…
A member of the Federal Reserve Board is complaining that too many of the new jobs created since the recovery began are low-wage, part-time, temporary, or all three.
Speaking last week at a conference in Washington, D.C., Fed Governor Sarah Raskin said, “Flexible and part-time arrangements can present great opportunities to some workers, but the substantial increase in part-time workers does raise a number of concerns.” These include, she said, a lack of benefits, lower pay rates, and, often, no sick or personal days off.
Two-thirds of the jobs lost in the recession, she said, “were in moderate-wage occupations, such as manufacturing, skilled construction, and office administration jobs.” But fewer than a quarter have come back. “Recent job gains,” she observed, “have been largely concentrated in lower-wage occupations such as retail sales, food preparation, manual labor, home health care, and customer service.” keep reading…
Economists were surprised and investors pleased by a jobs report this morning that said 236,000 jobs were created in February, which helped bring the U.S. unemployment down to 7.7%.
Every survey conducted before the numbers were released by the Labor Department had the average prediction showing between about 150,000 and 165,000 jobs added in February. Most also predicted that January’s 7.9% unemployment rate wouldn’t change. ADP’s job count, prepared by Moody’s Analytics and released Wednesday, came the closest to today’s numbers, reporting 198,000 private sector jobs were created during the month.
The private sector created 246,000 non-farm jobs, with the biggest gains coming in: keep reading…
Two days before the government releases its preliminary job count for February, ADP says the U.S. added 198,000 private sector jobs during the month.
The company, which processes the payrolls for hundreds of thousands of U.S. firms and provides other HR-related services, also upped its initial January report from 192,000 to 215,000 new jobs.
The report surprised analysts. A survey of economists by Bloomberg News put the average of their estimates at 170,000. That same survey predicts that the report to be released Friday morning by the U.S. Department of Labor will show 167,000 new jobs last month. (The Labor Department’s report includes government jobs; the ADP report does not.) keep reading…
No real surprises in this morning’s jobs report from the Labor Department. The U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs in January, most, as usual, in the services sector. Unemployment, meanwhile, crept up to 7.9% from 7.8%.
Economists were mostly expecting the numbers. Most estimates earlier in the week averaged out between about 160,000 and 165,000 new jobs. They had predicted December’s 7.8% unemployment rate would be unchanged. A Forbes survey suggested the rate might decrease to 7.7%.
In terms of actual numbers, 12.3 million Americans remain out of work, with 4.7 million of them unemployed for more than six months. Another 8 million are working at part-time jobs because they can’t find full time employment.
The January jobs gain is the smallest since September’s 138,000, but the report did up the jobs numbers for both December and November by a combined 127,000. keep reading…
The U.S. added more new jobs this month than economists had expected, to some extent offsetting the surprising news that the economy contracted during the last quarter of 2012.
The two economic reports out today offer a picture of growth that’s changed little in the last few years; two steps forward and one back. The ADP National Employment Report says employers, principally smaller firms with fewer than 50 workers, added a net of 192,000 jobs in January. The average estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News showed they were expecting ADP to 165,000 private sector jobs were added. Meanwhile, the U.S. Commerce Department said the economy shrank by an annualized .1 percent, hurt by a combination of factors that analysts said were more one-time events than any precursor of further contraction.
“Nothing’s changed. I think the economy is still growing at 2 to 2.5 percent,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, ADP’s partner in producing the monthly jobs reports. “I think a lot of things conspired in the fourth quarter.” keep reading…
More than half the employers in three of the four of the world’s biggest developing nation economies say they’ll be adding staff in 2013, a marked contrast to Europe and the U.S. where the majority of firms expect no change.
Hiring will be most aggressive in Brazil, India, and China where more than half the employers — almost three-quarters in Brazil — say they’ll be adding workers this year. Russia, where mining and energy exports are fueling growth, is more conservative in its hiring; just under half of employers expect to hire.
Elsewhere among the world’s 10 largest economies, far fewer employers expect to add workers. According to a CareerBuilder survey, in the U.S., Japan, and four European countries, the largest share of employers either expect to cut staff or make no change during the year. Even in the UK and the U.S., where more than half the employers surveyed report being better off financially than a year ago, not many of them plan to hire. keep reading…
The U.S. economy continued to chug along in December, much as economists were expecting, adding 155,000 jobs, while holding unemployment at 7.8 percent.
Labor economists, on average, forecasted a gain between 150,000 and 160,000, and no change in unemployment. The rate reported this morning by the U.S. Department of Labor was higher than the November rate initially reported; however, it and a few other months were changed slightly as part of the annual data revision.
The December numbers were substantially below the estimate offered yesterday by ADP and its data partner, Moody’s Analytics. Automatic Data Processing said 215,000 private sector jobs were created during the month. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, which prepares the monthly government report, counted 168,000 new private sector positions.
The BLS also revised up November’s jobs increase from 146,000 to 161,000, while October’s jobs count dropped by 1,000 to 137,000. For the year, job growth averaged 153,000 new non-farm jobs a month, the same as in 2011. keep reading…
In a report buoying hopes for a strong jobs showing in the official government report out tomorrow, ADP this morning said 215,000 new jobs were created in December.
It’s the largest increase in jobs reported by ADP, and its data partner, Moody’s Analytics, since February when the company said 227,000 private sector jobs were created. The report also adjusted up its November job growth from an initial 118,000 to 148,000. keep reading…
The employment outlook here at the start of 2013 is a lot like it was just last week at the end of 2012: cautious, slow, but with a few areas — high tech, for instance — where competition for talent will be even keener.
On the employee side, there’s a little less optimism now, with more workers than at any point during 2012 saying they don’t expect things to change much where they work in the next six months. As recently as the third quarter of last year, Glassdoor’s quarterly survey of workers found 48 percent of them expecting their company’s business performance to improve in the months ahead. Now, the fourth-quarter survey released this morning, says only 40 percent feel that way.
The findings of Glassdoor’s Employment Confidence Survey mirrors the monthly Consumer Confidence survey conducted by The Conference Board. The business organization’s much-watched Index declined by 6.4 points between November and December. While worries over the impact of the fiscal cliff accounted for a big part of the decline, The Conference Board said fewer consumers expect business conditions to improve in the next six months. In November 21.3 percent thought things would get better. In December only 17.6 percent said that, while those expecting business conditions to worsen increased to 21.5 percent from 15.8 percent. keep reading…
The U.S. employment picture is looking decidedly brighter at the end of 2012 than it did a year ago. For its final report of the year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says the unemployment rate dropped in 45 states in November; nowhere did it rise.
Over the year, only six states showed an increase in unemployment: Connecticut, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and South Dakota. One — Pennsylvania — had no change. But all 43 other states and the District of Columbia reduced their unemployment during the year. Nevada, which at 10.8% unemployment in November, has the highest rate in the nation, also made the most progress in putting people back to work. The state dropped 2.4 points over the year.
Over the year, nonfarm employment increased in 45 states and decreased in five states and the District of Columbia. The largest over-the-year percentage increase occurred in North Dakota (+4.7 percent), almost all of it due to the petroleum industry and support industries.
The BLS says over the year, 29 states had significant gains in employment, while only West Virginia lost jobs. (-13,800). The largest over-the-year jobs increase occurred in Texas (+278,800), followed by California (+268,600) and Ohio (+100,400).
Confounding predictions of mediocre new hiring and a rise in unemployment, the U.S. Department of Labor this morning said 148,000 new jobs were added to the national economy, while the unemployment rate decreased to 7.7 percent, a four-year low.
Economists were predicting November’s new jobs would come in under 100,000, and that the unemployment rate would remain at 7.9 percent. A few thought it might rise to 8 percent.
The stronger than expected jobs report pushed stock futures higher, portending a positive day for Wall Street. keep reading…
Few economists are expecting Friday’s official government report on jobs and unemployment to be anything but weak. That less-than-optimistic view was bolstered today by ADP’s National Employment Report, which said the U.S. economy added 118,000 private sector jobs last month.
The report, derived from the hundreds of thousands of payrolls ADP processes and compiled by Moody’s Analytics, blamed Hurricane Sandy for the weak job growth.
“Superstorm Sandy wreaked havoc on the job market in November, slicing an estimated 86,000 jobs from payrolls,” said Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist.
The report was just slightly less than the average 125,000 forecast by economists surveyed by both Reuters and Bloomberg. ADP also also adjusted down the October job growth from 158,000 to 157,000. keep reading…
Improvements in consumer’s confidence about the economy slowed last month, as the leading indices were up, but only slightly from October.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index came in at 73.7 in November. Though it rose only .6 from October’s 73.1., the Index still is the highest it ha been since February 2008, when it registered 76.4.
Likewise, the other major measure of consumer sentiment, Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, is at 82.7, a mere .1 above October’s 82.6.
Today, the Institute for Supply Management said its index of manufacturing conditions fell to 49.5, down from October’s 51.7. It’s the lowest level since July 2009. The report pushed stocks down, and, despite some positive news from the homebuilding industry and a rebound in auto sales, helped set a cautious tone for the week. The first week of each month is when a number of important reports and indices are released, capped on Friday by the monthly employment numbers from the U.S. Department of Labor. keep reading…