Receive daily articles & headlines each day in your inbox with your free ERE Daily Subscription.

Not logged in. [log in or register]

economicdata RSS feed Tag: economicdata

Jobs Up 171K in October as Most Sectors Show Growth

by
John Zappe
Nov 2, 2012, 9:49 am ET

The economy added 171,000 jobs in October, far more than economists were expecting, while the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 7.9 percent, a development many expected.

With most sectors showing job increases, including a 13,000 rise in manufacturing jobs and 17,000 in the beleaguered construction industry, this morning’s report from the U.S. Department of Labor was one of the strongest in months. In addition to the 184,000 non-farm, private sector jobs created in October (offset by losses in government job), the report adjusted upward the initial numbers for September and August by 84,000.

Surveys of economists in the days before this morning’s report had them forecasting the rise in the unemployment rate, but expecting job growth to be in the area of about 125,000 jobs. Yesterday, payroll processor ADP said its own analysis put October’s growth closer to 158,000. That helped send stock prices higher, although economists, wary of ADP’s track record at predicting the government report, largely stuck by their initial predictions.

But the jobs report has turned those predictions on their head. It shows more strength in more sectors than nearly anyone was expecting. In the retail sector, for instance, most categories added jobs, with motor vehicles and parts dealers adding 7,300 jobs. Retail overall was up 36,400 jobs. keep reading…

Stocks up on ADP Report Showing 158k New Jobs

by
John Zappe
Nov 1, 2012, 1:37 pm ET

A day before the official U.S. Labor Department jobs numbers get released, an ADP preview report is fueling speculation that the October report will become a November surprise.

The payroll processor and HR services firm, and its new partner, Moody’s Analytics, said this morning that 158,000 private sector jobs were created last month. That’s considerably better than the 138,000 the economists polled by Reuters expected, and is also ahead of the private sector job estimates economists expect to see in tomorrow’s government report.

Wall Street, which is still recovering from the hurricane that closed the markets Monday and Tuesday, reacted positively to the ADP report, adding almost 140 points to the Dow Jones Index by early afternoon. Helping to fuel the rally were two other reports: keep reading…

No Surprises Expected in Government Jobs Report Friday

by
John Zappe
Oct 31, 2012, 3:16 pm ET

Hurricane Sandy, which lashed the mid-Atlantic states this week, won’t delay the U.S. Department of Labor from releasing its October jobs and employment numbers. The agency said its monthly report will be out as scheduled Friday morning.

The October report has special significance as it’s the last one before the Presidential election Tuesday. How much the report will influence voters is up for debate, especially since economists aren’t expecting any surprises.

A Bloomberg survey of economists puts the average of their payroll growth estimates at 125,000 and unemployment up slightly from 7.8 to 7.9 percent. A Dow Jones Newswires survey puts job growth at 120,000, with no change in the unemployment rate. TrimTabs, an investment research firm, puts the number at 140,000 new jobs. keep reading…

Big Drop In Unemployment Rate, Though Only 114,000 New Jobs

by
John Zappe
Oct 5, 2012, 9:52 am ET

Click for larger

The unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to 7.8 percent in September, the first time it has been below 8 percent since January 2009. The sharp decrease comes even as the government reported an expected, but less-than-robust 114,000 new jobs were created during the month.

However, this morning’s jobs report from the U.S. Labor Department also added 86,000 to the initial jobs counts reported for July and August.

Economists had expected the unemployment rate to rise, so the reduction came as a surprise, particularly since it was the result of more people working.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said 873,000 workers got jobs during September, the first significant increase in three months. Many of them took part-time work, which helped push the number of people working part-time because they can’t find full-time work up by almost 600,000 in September to 8.6 million. keep reading…

Economists Cautious About September Jobs, While ADP Estimates 162,000

by
John Zappe
Oct 3, 2012, 1:04 pm ET

Two days before the U.S. government releases its official estimate of September’s job growth and employment, payroll processor ADP says the economy added 162,000 private sector non-farm jobs last month, most of them coming from businesses with fewer than 500 workers.

Economists in surveys by various business news services, had, on average, expected the ADP number to be closer to 150,000. The report also adjusted down its initial count for August to 189,000, a reduction of 12,000, and cut July’s numbers by 12,000 to 156,000.

Although the count rarely jibes with the report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, ADP’s National Employment Report is looked to by economists and the financial markets as an early indicator of what the official numbers might show. Economists are, on average, predicting September produced a net jobs increase in the range of 110,000 to 120,000. The BLS will issue its preliminary numbers Friday.

Some, however, say the actual number of new jobs may be closer to the ADP counts. TrimTabs Investment Research issued its own jobs estimate this morning, putting the number of new private-sector jobs created in September at 210,000. keep reading…

U.S. Has More Jobs Than Initially Thought

by
John Zappe
Sep 28, 2012, 4:23 pm ET

If you suspect it’s getting harder every month to recruit the talent you need, the government says you could be right. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised up by almost 400,000 its count of the total jobs in the nation.

The private sector created 452,000 more jobs than was reported in the monthly counts announced by the U.S. Department of Labor. Government payroll cuts reduced the total job gain to 386,000. The monthly report for September will be released October 5.

Most of the industry sectors were revised up. On a percentage basis, the biggest increases were in information services (a category that includes telecommunications, publishing, and IT among others), construction, and mining and logging (largely due to the petroleum industry hiring). Manufacturing lost 25,000 jobs and the professional and business services sector (which includes temporary hiring) dropped 14,000 jobs.

Annually the Bureau of Labor Statistics revises its job counts, using state unemployment insurance tax records required of virtually all companies. The upward revision applies to the period April 2011 to March 2102, meaning that at the end of March the economy had 133.24 million total non-farm people working. The revision represents a .3 percent adjustment to the national count, which is consistent with the revisions over the last 10 years. Just a few years ago, the bureau revised down its job count by some 900,000 jobs.

“The recovery,” said Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, “was not as disappointing as we thought. It was on much firmer footing.”

In a different report, the Department of Labor said initial claims for jobless benefits dropped 26,000 to 359,000 for the week ending September 22. It’s the lowest count since 357,000 claims were filed for the week ending July 21. It was also well below the median estimate of 375,000 new filings that economists in a Bloomberg survey had forecast.

Tired of Bickering Politicians? Deloitte Report Offers Some Centrist Ideas for U.S. Competitiveness

by
Todd Raphael
Sep 10, 2012, 5:50 pm ET

A new report from Deloitte, one that’s hard to characterize as liberal or conservative, offers some ways to address the U.S. unemployment problem and just generally make the U.S. more competitive.

Like other past reports, and pleas from some in the HR field, this one argues that more skilled employees be allowed to immigrate to the U.S.  keep reading…

August Jobs Report Shows Employers Still Slow to Add Jobs

by
John Zappe
Sep 7, 2012, 9:56 am ET

The U.S. Department of Labor reported this morning the country added 96,000 non-farm jobs in August, a disappointing number in light of predictions the increase would be at least 25 percent higher.

It isn’t the smallest increase the country has seen this year — that came in June when only 45,000 new jobs were added. However, the Labor Department jobs report also revised downward the numbers for June and July by 41,000 jobs, offering further evidence the economy isn’t picking up steam.

Even the decrease in the unemployment rate, which the Labor Department said went from 8.3 percent in July to 8.1 percent in August, offered no help. It was the result of fewer people looking for work. The Los Angeles Times said the 63.5 percent of the population that is in the labor force is the lowest in three decades.

“Since the beginning of this year,” says the report from the Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, “employment growth has averaged 139,000 per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011.” keep reading…

Experts Predict: Half Your Workforce Will Be Temps

by
John Zappe
Aug 28, 2012, 10:24 pm ET

The world is suddenly waking up to the discovery that employers are bringing on temp and contract workers at a pace that will soon surpass the peak numbers of 2006.

Subscribers to The Fordyce Letter first read about the surge in temp workers in the May issue. Following the release of the June employment numbers by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FordyceLetter.com reported, “There are now 2.534 million contract and temp workers in the U.S., a number just a few months shy of exceeding the all time high of 2.657 million reached in August 2006.”

Now, U.S. News says “Temp Workers Make Huge Comeback.” The article points out that the staffing industry has regained almost all the jobs lost in the recession, while other employers have added just over half the ones they shed. It’s not simply a sign of cautious employers bringing in extra help while waiting to see what the economy will do, but evidence of a trend.

Says the article, “In 1983, temporary workers made up just over half a percent of all employment. Now, that figure stands at nearly 2.3 percent — a remarkable change, despite the small numbers.”

“It’s a structural transformation,” maintains Arne Kalleberg, a professor of sociology at University of North Carolina who studies the labor force. keep reading…

July Employment Rises, Offering a “Non-Disappointment”

by
John Zappe
Aug 3, 2012, 10:00 am ET

Non-farm payrolls rose more than most economists expected in July, adding 163,000 new jobs with most industry sectors in plus territory, including a strong showing in manufacturers where some of the 25,000 increase was due to fewer layoffs in the auto industry.

The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 8.3 percent.

This morning’s report from the U.S. Department of Labor surprised economists who were expecting a more modest increase in the range of 95,000 to 110.000. Nearly all the surveys found economists expecting no change in the 8.2 percent unemployment rate.

The government also revised up its new job numbers for May from 77,000 to 87,000 and reduced June’s numbers by 16,000 to 64,000. keep reading…

Not Watching the Olympics at Work? Try Our Time Wasters

by
John Zappe and Todd Raphael
Aug 3, 2012, 9:26 am ET

Challenger, Gray & Christmas says good Americans should spend more and stay later at work.

Really.

That’s at least how we, in our own twisted way, read a press release this week from the global outplacement firm. Monday morning, after a full weekend of Olympics watching, CG&C sent out a note saying “many fans who want to watch live events will do so from their work desks.” You know what that means, accounting will be watching live ping pong instead of getting to month-end closing.

Not to worry, soothes CEO John Challenger, “In reality, it will have no measurable impact on the overall economy.” Why so, you wonder? “At the end of the day, productivity will be no worse for wear, as employees who slacked off during the workday, stay later to complete their projects or take work home…”

Los Angeles councilmembers evidently didn’t agree with Mr. Challenger, harrumphing that “City employees aren’t paid to watch the Olympics.”

If those slackers really want to step up to help the economy, they’ll do what you should be doing: SPEND MONEY WILDLY. “Cautious consumers may hurt the tenuous recovery,” the CG&C press release goes on to say. “Hiring going forward will, in large part, be defined by the demand of consumers,”says CEO Challenger.

Are Cyborgs Covered by The ADA? keep reading…

No Good News, But No Bad Either Expected From Friday’s Jobs Report

by
John Zappe
Aug 2, 2012, 6:41 pm ET

Labor economists are expecting what passes for good job news these days when the U.S. government reports its July employment numbers tomorrow.

A MarketWatch survey puts the average of what economists estimate at 100,000 new jobs added in July. Bloomberg puts the number at 110,000. Dow Jones is at 95,000. All the surveys agree that the unemployment rate will remain at 8.2 percent.

There are also expectations that the U.S. Department of Labor will up its count of June’s new jobs, which it initially put at 80,000. Economists drew encouragement from Wednesday’s National Employment Report from ADP  and its partner, Macroeconomic Advisers. The report estimated that 163,000 seasonally adjusted, non-farm, private sector jobs were added in July. June’s original count of 176,000 new jobs was adjusted down to 172,000. keep reading…

Summer Slump Returns as June Sees Only 80k New Jobs

by
John Zappe
Jul 6, 2012, 9:50 am ET

It could have been worse may be the best way to describe this morning’s jobs report from the U.S. Department of Labor. The government said 80,000 non-farm jobs were created in June, fewer than the 90,000-100,000 surveys predicted, but better than the more dire predictions, and an improvement — slight though it is — over April and May.

The unemployment rate remained at 8.2 percent, unchanged now for the second month and only barely better than the 8.3 percent that kicked off the year. Adjustments to the initial government numbers for April and May subtracted a net of 1,000 jobs from the reported 146,000.

The private sector, which was expected to have created as many as 110,000 jobs, generated a mere 84,000, less than half the 176,000 forecast just yesterday by an ADP report. Only some of the most aggressive hiring by local governments in months — presumably for summer work — helped keep the overall jobs numbers from falling further. Local governments added 18,100 new workers.

June capped the worst quarter in two years for hiring, and was way off the average of 226,000 monthly new jobs in the first quarter. From April through June the U.S. economy averaged 75,000 new jobs a month, a mere 3,000 ahead of 2010 and far behind last year’s average of 130,000. keep reading…

ADP Jobs Report Beats Estimates, Hinting U.S. May Avert Summer Jobs Slump

by
John Zappe
Jul 5, 2012, 12:16 pm ET

The private sector created 176,000 jobs in June, says a report this morning from payroll processor ADP, surprising economists who were expecting far fewer — closer to 108,000 — and raising the possibility the U.S. may avert a third summer hiring slump.

ADP’s National Employment Report is considered a harbinger of the official government report, which is scheduled to be released by the U.S. Department of Labor Friday morning. Economists are expecting that report to show the economy created between 90,000 and 100,000 new jobs last month. The 8.2 percent national unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged.

Now, says Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, ADP’s partner in the report, “The gain in private employment is strong enough to suggest that the national unemployment rate may have declined in June. Today‟s estimate, if reinforced by a comparable reading on employment from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics tomorrow, likely will ease concerns that the economy is heading into a downturn.”

The ADP report showed small employers — those with fewer than 50 workers — accounted for more than half the new jobs, adding 93,000 to their payrolls during June. Employers with 50 to 499 workers added 72,000 new jobs. Almost all the new jobs — 160,000 — were in the service sector. Manufacturing added 4,000. keep reading…

Thursday and Friday, We May Find Out We’re in a Summer Job Slump

by
John Zappe
Jul 4, 2012, 12:10 am ET

Labor economists are expecting that June was another lackluster month when it comes to job creation, forecasting that the U.S. economy added barely 100,000 jobs. The official report from the U.S. Labor Department is slated to be released Friday morning.

If it turns out they’re right — and we’ll get a hint when ADP releases its report on private jobs Thursday — it will mean that for the third consecutive year, job creation has gone into a summer slump. Though better than May’s 69,000 jobs, the forecasts, which are nearly all in a range from 90,000 to 100,000, evidence a growing suspicion that little improvement in employment is likely any time soon. keep reading…

Dismal Jobs Report Shows Economy Still Struggling

by
John Zappe
Jun 1, 2012, 9:51 am ET

Two Reuters headlines, eight hours apart, tell the story of May’s employment picture. “US job growth seen stepping up in May,” says the first. “US job growth falters in May,” says the second.

Contradicting even the more pessimistic of job growth estimates, the U.S. Labor Department this morning said a mere 69,000 new jobs were created in May. The report then added to the angst by slashing its estimate for April job growth from an initial 115,000 jobs to 77,000. And the report said unemployment edged up to 8.2 percent from 8.1.

It’s the lowest count of new jobs since May 2011. The timing is eerily coincidental. The May 2011 report ended four months of strong job growth, and presaged a summer of jobs numbers all below 100,000. keep reading…

Signs Point to Slower Hiring, as May Numbers Disappoint

by
John Zappe
May 31, 2012, 4:33 pm ET

This morning’s jobs report from ADP is prompting worries that hiring may be slowing, damping hopes that the anemic recovery may be hitting a rough spot, if not stalling.

ADP, which processes payrolls for some 500,000 U.S. firms, said private employment grew by 133,000 jobs in May. The company, and its analytics partner, Macroeconomic Advisers, also adjusted down by 6,000 its initial 119,000 April job estimate.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News were expecting the May ADP report to show about 150,000 new jobs. Bloomberg also said the expectation is for the official Labor Department report to show 160,000 new jobs during the month. That report is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning.

“While May’s increase was the 28th consecutive monthly advance, it nonetheless reflected a notable slowdown in the recent pace of hiring,” said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers.

Nearly all the new jobs came from the service sector, with small and medium companies in the sector — those with fewer than 500 employees — creating all but 15,000. Manufacturing, which had been growing until April, when it lost 6,000 jobs, lost 2,000 more, according to the ADP report. keep reading…

April Jobs Increase Was An Anemic 115k. Unemployment Rate Dips.

by
John Zappe
May 4, 2012, 9:52 am ET

Click for larger image

April’s jobs growth fell below expectations, coming in at 115,000, the lowest since October, said the U.S. Department of Labor in its monthly report out this morning. Most surveys put the average of economists’ estimates in the 160,000 range.

The report also showed the unemployment rate dipping from 8.2 percent to 8.1 percent, mostly due to workers leaving the labor force.  The share of Americans now in the labor force is at the lowest level since 1981, the New York Times reported.

However, the total number of unemployed Americans is 12.5 million, down about 1.3 million in the last year. Long-term unemployed (more than 27 weeks) accounted for 5.1 million of the unemployed, or 41.3 percent. Another 7.9 million are working part time because they can’t find full time jobs. keep reading…

Private Sector Jobs Report Comes In Below Expectations

by
John Zappe
May 2, 2012, 1:30 pm ET

A disappointing hiring report from payroll processor ADP this morning is fueling fears that the anemic U.S. recovery may be slowing. The company reported April saw 119,000 private sector jobs added, the lowest in seven months and well below the 175,000 average analysts were expecting.

Friday, the U.S. Labor Department issues its monthly employment report. Analysts expect it to show the economy added about 160,000 jobs in April. The ADP report, which can sometimes show sharply different numbers from the official report (due to differences in methodology), is nonetheless seen as an early indicator of the government numbers and hiring trends. That’s why the financial markets reacted to the numbers by selling, sending stocks lower before regaining most of the lost ground. keep reading…

Economic Indicators Rise For 6th Straight Month

by
John Zappe
Apr 19, 2012, 6:04 pm ET

More evidence this week that the recovery in the U.S. is holding its own. The Conference Board reported that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased for the sixth consecutive month in March, a sign of “economic momentum.”

“Despite relatively weak data on jobs, homebuilding, and output in the past month or two, the indicators signal continued economic momentum. We expect a gradual improvement in growth past the summer months,” says Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein.

The LEI index is a predictor of future economic conditions, and though the rise in March was .3 percent, lower than the .7 percent in February, it points to continued improvement. A second index, measuring current economic conditions, also rose in March; the sixth consecutive monthly increase for the Coincident Economic Index. The .2 percent matched the February rise and was ahead of January’s .1 percent increase. keep reading…