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October pulled a trick on economists who had expected the U.S. would be treated to a slowing job loss. Instead, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said this morning that 190,000 jobs were lost during the month, helping push the unemployment to a surprising 10.2 percent.

Surveys of economists had predicted the numbers would be closer to 150,000 to 175,000 lost jobs and an unemployment rate of 9.9 percent. The spike pushed the unemployment rate to its highest point since April 1983 and the job loss was the 22nd consecutive month of declines. keep reading…

Two labor-related reports this week offer no evidence that the recession Wall Street believes is over really is, at least so far as workers are concerned.

The Conference Board’s monthly Help-Wanted OnLine Data Series reported that online job postings dropped by 83,000 in October. The number of newly posted jobs dropped by 24,000. keep reading…

A new study from Watson Wyatt has pretty good news for employees who miss their old salaries and 401(k) matches, and shows that employers are just as worried about keeping people as they were before everything went all haywire on us.

Let’s start with retention. Take the percentage of surveyed employers (26%) who now say they are “significantly more concerned” about retention of key employees than they were before the economic crisis hit and the percentage (39%) who are “slightly more concerned” — add them together, and you find that almost two-thirds are more concerned about top-talent retention than before.

On to salaries, benefits, hours, layoffs, and hours. keep reading…

September’s job losses were worse than economists expected, dampening Wall Street’s hopes for a happy ending to the week and keeping stocks in the doldrums. If there was any good news it was that market indexes avoided a freefall.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers cut 263,000 jobs last month, a number 40-50 percent higher than economists expected. A Reuters poll predicted the non-farm payroll losses would be about 180,000 jobs, while a Bloomberg News estimate put the number closer to 1750,000 and one of the more optimistic estimates by MarketWatch expected a loss of 167,000 jobs.

The losses pushed the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent.

Among the biggest losers were construction jobs, down by 64,000 jobs; government, down by 53,000 jobs, and manufacturing, which lost another 51,000. The only significant gains came in healthcare, which added 19,000 jobs. keep reading…

Economists expect that tomorrow’s jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will show 175,000 jobs were lost in September, the smallest since July 2008.

A Bloomberg survey also says economists expect the unemployment rate to rise to 9.8 percent, the highest since 1983. An ADP report released this morning foreshadows the lower, yet still continuing job loss. The ADP National Employment Report says the U.S. lost 254,000 private, nonfarm jobs in September, a drop of 23,000 from the revised August jobs report. It’s the lowest drop that ADP has recorded since August 2008.

Government economic reports released today showed the tentativeness of the U.S. recovery. A Commerce Department report said consumer spending in August was up 1.3 points, the biggest rise in eight years, and the fourth increase in a row. But fueled as it was by the Cash for Clunkers program, economists warn not to expect anything similar when the September results are reported at the end of this month.

Meanwhile, the Monster Employment Index, also released this morning, was down two points from September, while yet another report, this one from the Labor Department today, said 551,000 first-time claims for unemployment were filed last week, 17,000 more than the previous week and 20,000 more than the consensus of the 41 economists polled by Bloomberg.

Then there is the report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas which says fewer layoffs were announced in September than in any month since March 2008. The 66,404 layoffs tallied in the report are 10,000 fewer than in August and 30 percent lower than in September last year.

Today’s reports prompted the New York Times to start its story this way: keep reading…

Online job listings took a hit in September, dropping by 101,800 from the August count.

The job posting data released today by The Conference Board suggests that the U.S. recovery is as tepid as economists fear.

“While the trend has been modestly upward and averaged 40,000 per month over the last five months, the labor market continues to have a hard time gaining momentum,” said Gad Levanon, senior economist at The Conference Board. “The Conference Board Employment Trends Index, which has been basically flat for three straight months, also helps highlight the difficulty the labor market is facing. With a growing consensus of a weak recovery, businesses seem to be slow to boost advertising for vacant or new positions.” keep reading…

Steven Toole doesn’t seem as high on social media recruiting as we are. But he is upbeat about employment, saying that a “perfect storm” is brewing for recruiters in 18-24 months as Americans begin a game of job-hopping musical chairs.

Below, Toole talks about these job-market trends, and the upcoming need for a lot of recruiters who have left the profession to come on back.

keep reading…

August job losses in the U.S. came in lower than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent, a high not seen in more than 25 years.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its August employment report this morning, putting the monthly job loss at 216,000. The average of guesses by economists surveyed by Bloomberg and Dow Jones was 230,000 to 233,000.

While the job loss is the lowest since August 2008, overall the economy has lost 6.9 million jobs since December 2007, the official start of the recession. This year alone the number of jobs lost tops 3.5 million.

The BLS numbers reflect the mixed messages the economy has been sending in the last few months. While job losses have declined significantly since the early part of the year, the ranks of the unemployed and the underemployed continues to grow. The BLS said the unemployed grew by 466,000 in August to 14.9 million. An additional 9.1 million people were involuntarily working part time because their hours had been cut or they couldn’t find full-time work. An additional 2.3 million people are out of work, but not counted as unemployed because they didn’t look for work during the four weeks preceding the government survey.

When those persons are included in the tally of the unemployed, the unemployment rate would be 16.8 percent.

The August job losses were generally across the board, with construction jobs taking the biggest hit dropping by 65,000. Close behind, though, was the 63,000 lost manufacturing jobs, with automotive responsible for nearly a fourth of the loss there.  The financial sector, which precipitated the recession, cut another 28,000 positions. Only healthcare had any appreciable gains, adding 28,000 jobs during the month, mostly in ambulatory care and in nursing and residential care.

Economists are expecting that Friday’s labor report will show the lowest job loss in a year even as the unemployment rate rises. keep reading…

New surveys this week are stoking optimism that the worst of the worst recession in (insert your choice of years here) really may be behind us.

The Conference Board, which issues some of the most watched economic indicators in the U.S., reported that consumer confidence jumped 14 percent between July and August. The Index, which hit a low of 26.9 in March, has more than doubled since then and now stands at 54.1. It’s still slightly below the 54.8 posted in May, but the rise was considerably greater than the 47.9 economists had expected, according to Bloomberg News.

Employers mirrored that confidence in a CareerBuilder / Robert Half survey that said 53 percent of businesses polled plan to hire full-time workers in 2010. The Employment Dynamics and Growth Expectations Report prepared by the two companies found 40 percent of employers planning to hire temporary or contract workers and 39 percent expecting to hire part-time workers. keep reading…

Surprising economists and delighting Wall Street, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped in July as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a significantly lower than expected job loss during the month.

Instead of the 275,000 to 325,000 jobs that economists in two respected surveys thought were lost in July, the BLS said the number was closer to 247,000. The BLS report also put the July unemployment rate at 9.4 percent, a .1 drop from June. Economists had been expecting a rise to between 9.6 and 9.7 percent.

The drop in the unemployment rate was the first since April 2008 and the job loss was the smallest since August. The news sent stocks higher today. The Dow was up almost 136 points at midday.

While the numbers are welcome news to a recession-weary country, they are not evidence of a recovery. Job counts, layoffs, and hiring — cumulatively the employment situation — are all considered lagging indicators. In a slowing economy, companies take other steps to cut expenses before laying off workers. Likewise, when business begins to pick up, companies restore lost hours and pay overtime before making new hires, just in case the economic improvement is a blip, rather than a full-fledged trend.

keep reading…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July’s official employment report on Friday, but already there are signs it could be the best bad news in a while.

Now follow along closely here, because this is one of those glass half-full stories where the fact that one report says 371,000 Americans lost their jobs in July and another reports a 31 percent jump in announced future job cuts is actually good news.

How’s that, you wonder? keep reading…

CareerBuilder says unemployed older workers are having a tough time finding jobs. A survey released last week says only 28 percent of workers over 54 laid off in the past 12 months found new jobs compared to workers 25-34 who are quicker at finding work. In that age group, 71 percent found a job within 12 months.

As a result, says CareerBuilder, 63 percent of the 55 and up group have applied for lower-level jobs, including entry-level positions and even internships.

That’s probably not much of a surprise to recruiters; 37 percent of them told CareerBuilder they have received applications for entry-level jobs from retirees and workers over 50.

What may well come as a surprise is the rise in older workers and the impact the recession is having on their ranks.

Layoffs and job losses have hit the younger workers hardest. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the 18 months since January 1, 2008, the number of workers in the 25-54 age group has declined by 5.1 million. For workers over 54 though, there are 624,000 more working. In fact, there were gains in the number of older employed workers in every age group the BLS tracks except one — 55-59 year olds who saw a modest decline of 79,000 in the 18 months.

Before you point out that the sheer number of older Americans has been rising, which is certainly true, consider for a moment the participation rate. Based on a monthly survey conducted by the U.S. Census for the BLS, the participation rate is independent of population size. It describes the percent of various population groups in the labor force.

The data shows that for the last 10 years, more and more older Americans are working. Since 1999, the percent of working Americans 55-64 has grown by 10 percent, while the over 64 age group has jumped — and that’s an apt word — by almost 40 percent. Contrast those changes to the 25-34 year olds who have declined from 84.6 in 1999 to 82.9 percent for the six months ending in June.

In the 61 years for which the BLS has data, this many older Americans have never been employed. In the mid-50s the percentage began to rise until 1967 when, at the peak, an average of 62.3 percent Americans aged 55-64 worked. The percentage began to decline until it bottomed in 1986 at 54 percent of the age group working. There it remained, rising modestly until the recession of the 90s when it started its upward climb.

keep reading…

With unemployment now reaching 9.5% and on track to hit 10% in the next few months, recruiters should consider their career options for the near term. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, so it may well be that things are getting better. There are glimmers of hope that may suggest the worst is over — The Dow and S&P 500 have been rising; global markets from Japan to London have also seen gains of about 25% in the last few months; housing sales are up along with consumer confidence.

But none of this means that a recovery is in the making. All it means is that the pace of decline is slowing. The good news is that there’s less bad news, but the bad news is that there’s still plenty of bad news. keep reading…

More workers than there are people in all of Miami were put out of work in June, a development that surprised economists and sent U.S. financial markets into a tailspin. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 467,000 jobs were lost last month, pushing the unemployment rate to 9.5 percent, a 26-year high.

A Bloomberg survey before the numbers were released this morning said economists were expecting a decline of about 367,000 jobs. Other surveys suggested an even lower number. Either way, the report was bad news and investors reacted by selling stocks, pushing prices lower the day before U.S. markets close in observance of Independence Day.

Monster Worldwide, which makes its money when companies are hiring, lost $1 on the earnings report. It was trading at $10.92 a share at midday in New York.

The job loss barely nudged the unemployment rate, which rose only one-tenth of a point from May. That suggests discouraged and long-time unemployed workers are taking themselves out of the labor market.

The BLS report says: “The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 433,000 over the month to 4.4 million. In June, 3 in 10 unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.” These are still included in the unemployment rate. However, the report notes that about 2.2 million more Americans are out of work, want to work, but have grown so discouraged that they have largely given up. These workers are not included in the unemployment figures.

When discouraged workers are included in the calculations, the unemployment rate is actually 10 percent nationally. keep reading…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics surprised economists when it reported that job losses in May slowed dramatically over the previous months. The 345,000 job loss was the lowest since September and about half the rate of the previous six months.

The number was 180,000 less than a Dow Jones Newswires survey of economists predicted. It was also significantly less than the 565,000 jobs Wanted Technologies said were lost in May.

Stocks rallied on the news immediately after the market opened, but turned negative in part the Associated Press reported, on a rumor that the government’s job loss number was wrong. The Labor Department said the numbers are correct.

Despite the encouraging job loss numbers, the BLS report showed the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent, a little higher than had been expected. The rate, up half a point over April, grew the number of people out of work by 787,000. Officially, 14.5 million people were unemployed in May. Of that number, 21 percent have been out of work for 15 or more weeks. These long-term unemployed, as the government calls them, have now reached 4.5 percent of the entire U.S. workforce, a percentage not seen in the 51 years the data has been collected.

“There is pretty good evidence that the recession is bottoming,” Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist of ChannelCapitalResearch.com, told the AP. “The real question is the type of recovery. Just because we’re reaching a bottom doesn’t mean a bounce is imminent.” keep reading…

Robert Johnson, Morningstar’s associate director of economic analysis, talks about whether the economy really is improving, when unemployment may peak, the U.S. government’s economic stimulus package, wages, raises, and more. keep reading…

There’s good news on this, the first day of June. The Conference Board reports this morning that online job postings rose last month by the largest amount in more than two years. It’s the first increase in the Help-Wanted Online Data Series in six months.

In May, there were 250,000 more jobs posted online than in April. The 8 percent increase brought the number of advertised jobs online to 3,367,000. Though modest, the increase dwarfs the 21,000 job posting gain The Conference Board reported in October 2008.

“The May bounce in labor demand is a very welcome sign,” said Gad Levanon, senior economist at The Conference Board. “Labor demand typically leads the trend in both employment and unemployment, so positive signals on labor demand are always important.”

While some of The Conference Board’s four U.S. regions showed more improvement than others, all had more online jobs advertised in May than in April. This extended to the state level where 43 states had more jobs. keep reading…

The job loss numbers released this morning, as deep as they are, nevertheless support the growing sense among economists and the public that the economy may be in the early stages of a recovery.

“This looks very much like an inflection point,” says Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Securities, who was quoted by Marketwatch this morning. “And the corroborating evidence … all suggest that the pace of layoffs is finally beginning to abate.”

Nevertheless, the 539,000 jobs lost during April pushed the unemployment rate nationally to 8.9 percent. It could have been even higher, but for government hiring in anticipation of the 2010 census.

“It is a sobering toll,” said President Barack Obama, cautioning that, “We should expect further job losses in the months to come.” Still, “The gears of our economic engine do appear to be slowly turning once again,” the President said. “Step by step, we’re beginning to make progress.”

The American people apparently sensed that too. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence Index for April took its biggest jump up in more than year, rising from 26.9 to 39.2. The 5,000 households that were surveyed also showed more optimism about improving business conditions. Those expecting that jobs will continue to decline over the next several months decreased from 41.6 percent to 33.6 percent, while those expecting more jobs increased to 13.9 percent from 7.3 percent.

That confidence was supported by a slight rise in the Monster Index. Though the change is still far below where it was a year ago and not even as high as in February, the Index found that eight of the nine regions in the U.S. had increases. Leisure and hospitality and some increases in banking and finance were the primary drivers to the Monster Index improvement, suggesting that seasonal hiring is probably playing a role in moderating the job losses.

From the department of maybe-things-are-getting-less-bad: “layoffs, hiring freezes, and salary freezes may have finally peaked” in the U.S., Watson Wyatt says.

Watson Wyatt’s survey this month of 141 employers shows that 26 percent of employers plan to increase cost-cutting initiatives over the next 12 months, way down from 51 percent who said so in February. Of the companies who have avoided layoffs thus far, only 5% expect to start laying people off over the next year.

In a nutshell, the first two columns below are the nasty ones; the last two are the good ones. keep reading…