Recession is real. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, says there is “no debate that the economy is in a recession.” Among other worries for the average American, beyond a lower net worth and smaller purchasing power, Zandi says it is tough to find a job, and “if you lose a job, it is tough to get back in.”

Jobless jump. The new BLS report shows that May’s jobless rate jumped to 5.5% from 5%, a sounding bell that U.S. growth is stalling.

Job losses. Since the beginning of 2008, job losses have totaled 324,000.

Optimistic pessimism. The 49,000 loss is actually smaller than initially forecast, after a 28,000 drop in April that was more than initially reported.

Who is hit. So who represents that 5.5%? The pain is sparing no one, with adult men, adult women, teens, whites, and blacks equally affected. Of note, among the 8.5 million unemployed Americans, the largest segment is among 16- to 24-year-olds.

The ADP report. According to a report from ADP Employer Services, U.S. companies unexpectedly added 40,000 jobs in May, the most since January. The ADP report doesn’t include government jobs, and the report tends to over-inflate private employment data.

Healthcare still hot. In the healthcare sector, 34,000 new jobs were added in May.

Construction not hot. Employment in construction, meanwhile, declined by 34,000. The BLS says that, since its peak in September 2006, construction employment has fallen by 475,000; two-thirds of that decrease, or 320,000, has occurred in just the past seven months.

A maybe on manufacturing. Among manufacturing jobs, employment declined in May by 26,000 jobs. Declines continued in two construction-related manufacturing industries — wood products and nonmetallic mineral products.

Retail cuts. Retail trade employment in department stores and similar declined by 27,000 in May. Since peaking in March 2007, the industry has lost 184,000 jobs, says the BLS.

Temp help. Temporary help services shed 30,000 jobs in May, with a total of 110,000 job losses over the past four months.

Hundreds of teens from across the five boroughs in New York City, who are part of the National Foundation for Teaching Entrepreneurship, are looking to “make a job, not take a job.”

These students certainly have the entrepreneurial spirit.

Take Amanda Loyola, a 15-year-old 10th-grader at Horace Mann in Manhattan. Her eco-friendly pet business, EcoDog Treats, produces inexpensive, vegetarian dog treats.

Or look at Jelani Anglin, a 16-year-old junior at Elmont Memorial High School in Queens. His company, No Bones, provides exclusive electronic equipment priced at least 10% below its competitors.

Loyola and Anglin are just two students competing for venture funding of as much as $1,200 to help them launch their start-ups. This is all part of the annual New York Regional Business Plan Competition, slated for June 10.

Spoken like a true entrepreneur, Loyola says her eco-pet business “is way better than a summer job, because with a summer job it’s just the summer.”

As part of this competition, Loyola and others will learn business concepts such as developing income statements; conducting market research; and completing and presenting business plans.

“When you have your own business it could be a stable thing throughout the whole year as your income,” she says.

Still, don’t rule these ambitious students out as future workers at your company. Barbara Reuter, metro executive director of the National Foundation for Teaching Entrepreneurship, says “many of our NFTE students may return to traditional employment, yet they’ve learned how the economy operates, which makes them much better business people.”

In addition, Reuter points to research from Harvard and Brandeis universities that the NFTE students tend to set their sights on higher academic goals such as attending and completing college.

Teen summer employment is expected to fall to the lowest rate in the 60-year history of government jobs data. The Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University says working teens ages 16 to 19 will slide to 34%, down from 45% in 2000 and a high of 48.5% in 1989. A lot of this increased competition can be attributed to adults competing for the same low-skilled, hourly jobs in the service and retail industries.

Yep, tech professionals. There is no denying the market’s sluggishness after you skim the Yoh Index of Technology Wages. Tech professionals’ salaries are falling, with wages dropping 2.7% in the first-quarter, when compared to the same period in 2007.

Jim Lanzalotto, vice president of strategy and marketing for Yoh, points out that “this drop in wages this quarter, coupled with April’s negative Bureau of Labor Statistics report on employment, paints a very lackluster picture of the economy.”

“However, this continues to be a skill-driven market and we’re still seeing pockets of strength in the tech sector, such as SAP, Oracle, security, and product development, and software and hardware engineers,” says Lanzalotto.

If the strength found in these sectors permeates the weaker sectors of the market, there is a chance that it could ultimately produce stronger wage growth for the second half of 2008.

The Yoh quarterly report also identifies the top job titles in highest demand. Based on conversations with more than 9,000 hiring managers in over 15 major metropolitan areas, Yoh says the following roles have appeared most frequently nationwide:

• Biostatistician
• Civil Engineer
• Clinical Research Associate
• Firmware/Embedded Engineer
• Java Developer
• Mechanical Engineer
• .Net Developer
• Oracle DBA
• Project Manager
• SAP® Consultant (Functional/Technical)

Just before we head out for the long Memorial Day weekend, let’s review how stress can be the silent killer of retention in your recruiting department.

Think “silent killer” is being a bit dramatic?

Recruitment analyst Peter Weddle doesn’t think so, coining stress “the silent killer” because he thinks no one is paying much attention to how stress breaks down an otherwise healthy staff.

In Watson Wyatt’s 2007/2008 Global Strategic Rewards report, 40% of employees cited stress as the number-one reason for leaving their last employer. But when asked why their employees jumped ship, the bosses ranked stress at number five.

Be Resilient

Weddle encourages adopting a slower pace to embark on a recruiter’s stress reduction program:

• Step 1: Conduct a test among your recruiting team. This blind survey can pinpoint what’s currently causing any pressure or anxiety, and nothing should be off limits. Weddle says the goal is to identify the fixable sources of stress within your organization. Weddle acknowledges that the team will likely complain about leadership, culture, or compensation policies, but you should really determine the growing irritants that collectively shadow a recruiter’s perceived ability to succeed on-the-job. Some worries, for example, are unrealistic workloads, insufficient training, unpleasant work environment, or unrealistic schedules.
• Step: 2: Identify any “stress-reduction resources” you could use. For example, a nonconventional resource might be found within your own staffing group. During a budget crunch, it might leave some open time on someone else’s schedule. Voila! That’s recruiter talent that’s normally committed elsewhere. Also look for things outside of the staffing group. For example, Weddle suggests that a reduction in workload in the finance department may enable someone on that staff to invest some time in tutoring recruiters on building the business case for corporate investments.
• Step 3: Allocate the resources you have to address the sources of stress that you’ve identified. After you’ve determined what stresses you out and what resources, if any, could help, build and prioritize a list of specific stress-reduction actions. Then brief the entire recruiting team on your plan, and finally, execute the steps to help lower stress for you and your team.

Stress is a state of mind, sure, but these tips can help you keep the right frame of mind all year long. At the very least, maybe these tips will help you rest better this long holiday weekend and return to work on Tuesday significantly refreshed!

While everyone can agree that smoking is unhealthy, should it be the primary reason to close the door on prospective new applicants? Especially prospective “star” candidates?

Well, Sarasota county government seems to think so. On Monday, it implemented a tobacco-free hiring policy for all new job applicants.

On the one hand, everyone should applaud this healthy step forward. On the other, what’s next? Testing for the presence of excessive levels of Ben & Jerry’s Chunky Monkey or a few too many Twinkies?

But Sarasota is serious about this new policy, stating that all applicants for jobs with Sarasota County will be required to acknowledge during the application process that they have not used tobacco products for the preceding 12 months.

Applicants who refuse to verify that they do not use tobacco products will be deemed ineligible for employment. In addition, applicants will be screened for tobacco use during the new-hire physical exam process. If the screening indicates the presence of nicotine above a specified amount, the applicant will be considered ineligible for employment.

Why Change Now?

The county says its revised policy is based on years of research regarding the negative effects of tobacco use on the personal health of individuals and employer organizations.

For example, from 1997 to 2001, cigarette smoking was estimated to be responsible for $167 billion in annual health-related economic losses in the United States.

Sarasota County says its decision to adopt this tobacco-free policy will promote a healthier workforce and benefit taxpayers’ dollars.

Of course, Sarasota is not alone. Due to higher insurance costs and the drain on productivity, employers around the country have considered such measures.

(We checked its online jobs board, but R.J. Reynolds is not one of these more progressive employers.)

If your company is thinking of such a policy, make sure to learn from other companies that have faced lawsuits from employees. For example, a Miracle-Gro employee challenged the policy last year.

And if you’ve been hospitalized recently, or even had to wait in a doctor’s room lately, you’re probably aware that even the best nurses are over-worked and under-paid.

So no matter what side of the immigration debate you’re on, is there really a legitimate argument left over why we’re blocking the efforts of highly motivated nursing students to stay in our country and aid the sick, tired, and needy?

Category Three Hurricane

Workforce analyst Peter Buerhaus, a Vanderbilt University professor, says new data points to a gathering storm that will be “like a Category Three hurricane, but one that hits the entire nation.”

During a May 6 press conference at the National Press Club in Washington, DC, he predicted that the current nursing shortage, which began in 1998, could hit 500,000 by 2025.

“A shortage that size could incapacitate the healthcare system,” Buerhaus said.

Green Card Caps

Retrogression has significantly impacted the hiring practices of organizations across many industries and the healthcare field is no exception.

Agnes Rudinsky, an immigration attorney for VisaNow, says many foreign graduates of U.S. nursing programs are unable to work following the expiration of their Optional Practical Training (OPT) as they wait to move through the backlog of green card applications.

“Based on the current processing time, they must wait two to three years for their green card cases to be approved,” says Rudinsky.

“While their green card cases are pending, and with the H-1B work visa cap reached in record time again this year, they often are not able to secure any nonimmigrant visas to legally work in the U.S. while they wait for their green card applications to be approved.”

Emergency Nursing Supply Relief

VisaNow explains that the Emergency Nursing Supply Relief Act bill introduced to the House aims to address the challenges many hospitals are facing to fully staff their organizations with registered nurses and physical therapists.

“The bill will take nurses out of the green card caps until 2011, with a limit of 20,000 principle applicants per year. This means that nurses will not take green cards away from others currently queued up. In addition to the removal of nurse petitions from the green card caps, which this bill proposes, the requirement for the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services to review the I-140 of the nurse petition within 30 days of submission is a crucial step in expediting this process,” says Rudinsky.

Currently, the average time for an approval on this piece of a green card application is eight to 12 months, she explains.

“Obviously, this bill is a significant step in the right direction for hospitals that struggle with the well-known shortage of healthcare workers,” adds Rudinsky.

As a new working mom, I realize that not everyone is lucky enough to work for a company as progressive as ERE Media. Not everyone gets a fair maternity leave, and not everyone gets to work with a team of really amazing people who value family life and relationships.

In fact, a new CareerBuilder.com survey finds that 43% of working moms would choose a pay cut in order to spend more time with their kids. Something tells me that 43% is a rather low figure, assuming the other 57% haven’t spawned a “problem child” who clings to them like a rhesus monkey that practices his high-pitched shrieks at 3 am.

CareerBuilder’s survey of 880 U.S. female employees (employed full-time with at least one child under 18 years old living at home) also revealed that for those choosing the pay cut, 34% would be willing to give up 10% or more of their salaries.

Assuming a majority of your best talent managed to snag not just a job at your company, but also snag a spouse with a well-paying salary, you should be scared. Definitely scared enough to make real work-life policies that actually mean something — not merely an “employees can arrive at 7:30 instead of 9am!” mentality.

Why? The CareerBuilder survey also points out that for working moms with more than one source of income, 51% indicated they would leave their job if their spouse or significant other made enough money to support the entire family.

In the survey, 34% of working moms said they spend less than three hours per day with their children, 17% reported they had missed three or more significant events in their child’s life in the last year, and 27% had missed two or more. Most disappointing of all in this day and age of “flex time” is that 24% said work had negatively impacted the relationships they have with their children.

“As companies continue to experience a tighter labor market, the importance of retaining star employees is requiring them to implement benefits that actually encourage workers to improve the balance between their professional and family lives,” explains Mary Delaney, chief sales officer at CareerBuilder.com and mother of three.

“From flexible work schedules to job sharing to telecommuting, company-wide work/life initiatives are becoming much more universal,” she says.

Retain Star Employees

Sure, they might be universal, but are they enough to retain your star employees?

LifemeetsWork.com, a website dedicated to fostering the flexible work movement, confirms that companies that fail to offer flexible work are missing out on some of the best talent available and will be at a distinct recruiting disadvantage within the next five years.

“Companies should think about flexibility as a way to manage their labor needs instead of as a perk for high-performing employees,” says Kyra Cavanaugh, a former marketing manager in the food industry and a mother of three.

“It’s getting harder to find skilled workers from the full-time job pool. Smart companies are tapping into alternate sources of workers, like stay-at-home moms, and implementing programs to retain younger workers and retiring boomers,” she says.

Cavanaugh’s site also includes an online job board, and each job post is reviewed to ensure it meets flex criteria.

“Flexible jobs benefit everyone,” she says.

“Companies see improvements in loyalty, productivity, and recruitment, while families experience reduced stress and improved health for both parents and their children,” adds Cavanaugh.

In reflecting back on all this stuff, I started trying to recall what I did before I had these technologies available to me. I’m sure this is a question that many of you have asked yourselves as well, especially those of you in the ‘Baby Boomer’ generation, who can remember back way further than I ever could.

Seriously, how did we survive? What did we do for entertainment? Has technology really dumbed us down so much that we literally cannot find each other in a crowd without calling or texting our locations? Are we losing the ability to communicate face to face with each other because technology has allowed us the luxury of communicating through non-verbal and impersonal means?

A problem that arises with all these new social media technologies is that our interpersonal communication skills seem to be suffering in part due to them. In particular, recent college graduates are having a difficult time in the workforce due to their lack of communication skills. In a study done by The Conference Board back in 2006, it was found that “for graduates of four-year colleges, at least one in five employers found the recent graduates deficient in written in communications, writing in English and leadership.”

In 2008 the National Association of Colleges and Employers put an article out through JobWeb as a reference piece for the class of 2008. Within the article, they too discussed the issue of the lack of communication skills:

“Unfortunately-and ironically-the very qualities employers look for are the qualities they find lacking in many new graduates. More than a third of employers say new graduates lack face-to-face communication skills. They say many students tend to lack interview and presentation skills, telephone skills, and overall interpersonal (gets along well with others) skills.”

So with all of these hindrances that have resulted from the fabulous technology like that shown at the Web 2.0 Expo, how do we, in the business of recruiting, embrace it without letting it consume us? I think this question is best asked first of researchers and sourcers, since we are more likely to be the people who could get caught up in over-use. However, I think lots of folks in our industry are also in danger of “poo-pooing” every new thing that comes along simply because it’s new. As professionals in the recruiting industry, how do we not go from one extreme to the other and find a happy medium?

Be willing to try things out and find what works best for you. While other people may embrace certain tools, they may not provide value for your company. Find your own personal balance, and remember that your balance will be different from everyone else’s. Those of us who are researchers and sourcers are by nature going to embrace more of these tools and have a deeper interest in understanding them. Don’t fight it! If you are deeply interested in the technology, learn about it and apply what you learn to your job.

At the same time, don’t ignore new tools simply because you don’t understand them or don’t think they’ll add any immediate benefit to your work. Just because you never heard of it doesn’t mean it’s not worthwhile.

My experience helped to broaden my own knowledge base of what is available to me. Will I use everything I experienced? Nope! But I’m sure there will be plenty of opportunities at Waggener for me to use a lot of it. And because of that, I’m excited to be back to work and to be able to share what I learned with our staffing team and see how it will help us along the path to excellence in corporate recruiting.

Finally, it’s appropriate for me to thank Dave Manaster of ERE Media for giving me the opportunity to experience the Web 2.0 Expo in San Francisco last week. In chatting with him this week, he paid me a great compliment by saying that he was very comfortable offering me this chance because he knew I would do a good job, and he knew he could trust me. Also — my Waggener Edstrom coworkers, who went a few days without me while I was conferencing, were incredibly supportive of this opportunity and encouraged me to attend. Working with people who understand the value of learning about this technology is a blessing for me, and I’m so pleased to be part of such an awesome team at Waggener.

With that, I will leave you with a picture slideshow of some of the conference experiences, as well as a great video I was able to capture once the conference was over. I hope many of you will consider attending one of the three remaining Web 2.0 Expos this year, or the Expo in San Francisco in 2009.

For one thing, prejudices appear to be evaporating against people going the online route, driven no doubt by companies’ voracious appetite for talent (coupled with the “where are all the good candidates?” syndrome). The line is beginning to blur between online and classroom training, with a growing number of bricks-and-mortar campuses delivering course offerings online. That’s a trend that’s been developing for a number of years.

Although slightly dated, research from The Sloan Foundation reinforces why all this is crucial to recruiters. Sloan says 20 percent of all U.S. higher education students took at least one online course in 2006. And at nearly 10 percent, the rate of growth of online enrollments far outstrips the 1.5 percent of the overall national population of higher-ed students.

I soon expect avant-garde recruiting organizations — especially those that want first dibs on newly minted grads — to turn up the pressure on online outfits such as University of Phoenix, ITT Technical Institute and others to offer enhanced post-graduate placement services. These agreements pop up from time to time in certain quarters, but it’s a market niche that remains sorely underserved.

An online university is like banquet table. Just as they’ve always done, recruiters will follow the breadcrumbs to satisfy their appetites for talent.

Think that’s an impossible order? Allegiance, a Salt Lake City-based company, says it doesn’t have to be, though most companies “don’t know where to begin” and are sadly behind the curve on adopting an ethical culture of their own.

Its chief operating officer, Greg Heaps, suggests that “today’s employees want to work for an organization that has built a foundation on integrity and that cares about operating an honest company, hiring other principled people, and working with ethical partners.”

Think fuzzy ethics seems so yesterday, so Enron, so over? Not so much. Companies are still sliding down the slippery slope of warped ethics, from the mild incident at handbag retailer Coach to explosive bribery allegations at Siemens.

Even though Allegiance’s six steps toward maintaining an ethical culture at your company are far from revolutionary, maybe it’s never too late for companies to brush up on the basics:

1. Establish an enforceable code of conduct. The process should be led by those at the top of the company and should include employee input.
2. Initial and ongoing training. Training begins once a person is hired and should continue throughout the life of the employee.
3. Regular communications. Ethics should be a live, ongoing conversation.
4. Anonymous reporting hotline. Companies should provide employees with a safe, anonymous and confidential way to report inappropriate, unethical, or illegal activities.
5. Enforcement/action. Companies must be willing to do whatever it takes to enforce the code of conduct.
6. Rewarding employees that live the culture. Companies should let employees know that an ethical culture is important to the organization and should recognize and reward those employees that help to establish the culture.

What makes these companies so cocky? While other companies are struggling to find enough talent, this group of employers thinks money is enough to keep their new hires happy.

In fact, 24% of employers plan to pay their summer hires and/or interns more this year than they did last year. But as we all know, money is no guarantee that these seasonal workers will stick.

According to CareerBuilder.com’s latest survey of more than 3,000 U.S. employers, 47% plan to dish out $10 or more per hour; 7% will pay $20 or more per hour; 29% anticipate paying between $8 and $10 per hour; and 11% expect to pay less than $7 per hour.

Praise is Priceless

But so what? Is money what matters? Survey after survey finds that quality-of-life dreaming is not just a desire by those demanding Gen Y kids. Most surveys point out that while salary can buy a lot of things, more and more workers prefer other benefits. Things such as telecommuting and flex time, sure, but even more holistic measures like a sense of purpose or consistent praise.

(Check out “Seven things employees want most to be happy at work,” which points out the obvious: “Praise does not cost anything to give, but its benefits on employee morale are priceless.”

But still, the CareerBuilder.com survey says 7% of seasonal workers are still going to get more than $20 an hour. That beats scooping ice cream or mowing lawns for peanuts.

So just who is hiring seasonal workers? The survey finds that hospitality (40%) and retail (39%) are leading in the number of hiring managers planning to recruit summer workers. Among all employers, the most popular summer positions being offered include office support (28%); customer service (19%); landscape/maintenance (14%); research (14%); restaurant/food service (8%); construction/painting (8%); and sales (8%).

As Sullivan points out, sending the best talent you can find to your corporate website to make them fill out the same painful application anyone else coming to the site would fill out is beyond ineffective.

And a new study shows that Sullivan’s philosophy is right on the money.

This latest study by Norwalk, Connecticut-based ExecuNet (site; profile) says executives seem to be a paranoid bunch, not only doubtful that their resumes will land on the desk of the right decision-maker, but also skeptical that the position even exists.

The firm’s 2008 Executive Job Market Intelligence Report on trends affecting the corporate leadership employment market shows that approximately 74% of executives believe their resume probably never reaches the decision maker when submitted electronically through a company website.

And 72% of executives agree or are unsure that most positions listed on online job boards are phony or already filled.

Of course, the survey also shows that nearly 86% of corporate HR executives and 61% of search firms don’t normally post positions with a total compensation of $200,000 and above on public websites.

According to ExecuNet, this is because corporate recruiters lack the time to sift through unsolicited resumes. They turn to their networks or employee referrals for leads, while search consultants also prefer to initiate the outreach rather than dealing with the thousands of resumes they receive online each day.

As ExecuNet notes, there is simply no substitute for an expanded diverse network of connections to compensate for the lack of public job postings at the executive level.

Other Executive Findings

The firm’s 16^th annual survey of 4,349 executives and 718 search firm consultants and HR professionals shows other interesting trends:

• Be prepared for the departure of some of your key executives this year, but don’t expect an improved compensation to keep them. Despite total executive compensation increasing 5.7% in 2007 — and expected to grow another 6.2% in 2008 - just 12% of executives jump ship because of money.
• Executive recruiters expect search assignments to climb 17% in 2008, while corporate recruiters are forecasting a 10% increase in executive-level job opportunities at their companies.
• The industries expected to generate the most executive job growth in 2008 include high-tech, healthcare, business services, pharmaceuticals/biotech, and energy/utilities.
• Approximately 60% of employed executives report they are satisfied with their current jobs; the remaining 40% are bored or crave advancement.
• About 51% of all executive compensation packages negotiated in the past 12 months featured perks, including company cars, club memberships, housing, and favorable loans — up from 38% in 2006.

When January 1 rolled around, and the first baby boomers became eligible to collect Social Security, it seems that an alarm bell went off to figure out, once and for all, the employment sector over the next five years.

That must be why, according to a study by Research and Markets, entitled Snapshots U.S. Advertising 2008, recruiters will spend $58 billion this year on recruitment advertising across all media, local and national.

While $58 billion can buy a lot of ad space, can it buy quality candidates? Or is it simply being funneled out without much thought behind the workforce that is replacing the boomers? The study points out that nearly half the job seekers who have Internet access are not using online media to look for a job. This is despite the fact that recruiters are currently spending nearly 60% of their budgets on online media.

How about that wake-up call to make you re-think your recruiting strategy? A colossal budget to find talent, yet many still haven’t realized that it probably wouldn’t be that hard to integrate Gen X and Gen Y if companies started realizing these are distinctly different generations, with vastly different wants and desires.

Even more interesting is that it is expected that over the next four years, recruitment spending will increase 25% to a whopping $73 billion in 2012. The beneficiaries will be online media and full-service employment agencies. Online spending will increase 23.5% to a record high of over $11 billion, according to the Research and Markets report.

The study points out that the main losers of recruitment revenue will be large-circulation newspapers, which will see their job related revenues decline by 12% over the next four years.

Video is also expected to get hotter, however, with total ad spending for online video at $522 million in 2007. It’s expected to reach $10 billion by 2012. The study finds that early spending on video ads is going to job- and employer-related video.

This list shows the ranking for 2008, with the 2007 rankings in parentheses:

1. Engineers
2. Machinists/Machine operators (10)
3. Skilled trades
4. Technicians (4)
5. Sales representatives (1)
6. Accounting & finance staff (8)
7. Mechanics (3)
8. Laborers (9)
9. IT staff
10. Production operators

Employers are finding it difficult to fill openings for skilled trades people, IT staff, and production operators, all new to the 2008 list.

Manpower says this research hints at the fact that employers across the country are experiencing a mismatch between the talent their businesses need and the skills and abilities potential employees possess.

So how can you get the balance you need? Manpower says it is essential for companies to get better at attracting and retaining aging workers while still developing innovative recruiting programs targeting young professionals, especially those interested in technical and trade careers.

Melanie Holmes, a Manpower vice president, talks here about how companies can find a balance for attracting and retaining workers in the different generations.

In fact, a new CareerBuilder survey shows that 58% of employers plan to hire recent college graduates in 2008, down from 79% in 2007. That 58% figure is remarkably similar to MonsterTrak data released last month, showing that only 59% of employers plan to hire this spring, a decrease of 17%.

These figures contradict new data from the National Association of Colleges and Employers, which recently suggested that hiring new recruits is expected to be 8% higher than last spring.

(Not surprisingly though, this 8% figure is still half what NACE said last year, at the time predicting a 16% figure for 2008 graduates.)

Of those who are hiring, CareerBuilder notes, 24% expect to hire more recent college graduates in 2008 compared to 2007, and 39% plan to increase starting salaries.

In CareerBuilder’s survey of 3,147 hiring managers and HR professionals, 32% of employers expect to offer recent college graduates starting salaries ranging between $30,000 and $40,000. An additional 15% will offer between $40,000 and $50,000, and 11% will offer more than $50,000. About 42% of new grads will be offered less than $30,000.

Salary Bump Blues

The news isn’t much rosier for the established workforce, either. According to the ERI Economic Research Institute’s evergreen salary increase survey, the average salary budget increase at most companies will be 4% for 2009, down only slightly from the 2008 level of 4.1%.

The research think tank warns that although this may appear to be a minor decrease, it represents a “distinct change” in direction, as recent years have seen modest increases in salary and incentive budgets.

“U.S. companies are in a bind for talent and skilled knowledge workers. ERI is looking, but we’ve not seen evidence of anything other than concern about the pay of key staff, from those of our 15,000 subscribers who are entering data into our ongoing survey,” says Dr. David J. Thomsen, ERI’s director.

“There’s no recession for key skills and talent. The major disconnect is between wage increases and what’s happening with cost-of-living,” he adds.

Still, he points out that among certain skills groups, the norm is closer to a 6% or 7% increase.

This is due, he cautions, “because of the freeze on H-1B visas and the fact that the U.S. educational system is training our youngsters for non-existent jobs.”

Despite recession worries, however, 53% still view high-end jobs in their cities as either “stable” or “somewhat stable,” according to a new survey.

And even if economists are throwing around the “r” word with disdain, these job-seeking executives are saying otherwise. The survey shows that 65% still remain confident that they will be gainfully employed at a high-paying job within six months.

According to TheLadders.com’s (profile; site) quarterly job survey of executives in 20 major cities, the most favorable job markets are in San Francisco, San Diego, Washington, DC, Boston, and New York. The ratio of job seekers to job postings is 3:1 in both San Francisco and San Diego, and 4:1 in DC, Boston, and New York, the survey says.

Of course, these big-city hubs have scores of technology and pharmaceutical opportunities. Indeed, the survey points out that most of the big companies doing high-end hiring are by the likes of Abbott Laboratories, Cisco, Expedia, Genzyme, and Sun Microsystems, looking to fill predominantly tech and pharmaceutical jobs.

Meanwhile, in places seriously weakened by the mortgage meltdown, automotive slowdown, and construction shutdown, those ratios are rapidly deteriorating.

For example, the number of active job seekers to number of high-paying jobs in Detroit was 22:1 in the survey. In Tampa, the ratio is 11:1.

These numbers are much worse than during the same period in 2007, when Q1 data for Tampa showed the number of active job seekers to number of high-paying jobs at 8:1, and depressingly, only 6:1 in 2006. In Detroit, the numbers were 16:1 in 2007 and a mere, by comparison, 13:1 in 2006.

It’s not that I don’t respect the rat-a-tat, rapid-fire delivery by workplace writer Penelope Trunk, speaking at the ERE Expo in San Diego. Her witty observations appear in her syndicated Boston Globe column and on her popular blog. It’s not her delivery that annoys me; what is bugging me is that for as many times as she completely misses the mark about what Gen Y wants, she also sometimes nails it.

But the painfully obvious takeaway is that her observations about Gen Y are predicated on a classic case of sibling rivalry. Gen X is the typical oldest child who has fought their “parents,” or those Boomer bosses, all their careers.

Meanwhile, their spoiled, overly coddled baby sibling (Gen Y worker) swoops right in and gets everything they want in the workplace.

10 Approaches to Gen Y

Trunk offers a list of 10 approaches to understanding the Gen Y workforce, or what she terms the most “fundamentally conservative” generation to date:

1. They live with their parents. She claims they use this as a buffer to ensure they can have the type of career they want. And this is bad why?
2. They job hop. Sure, this might be annoying on the surface, but it’s true that this makes workers more engaged because the learning curve starts flattening a lot faster. As she points out, “HR can’t toss the resumes if a whole generation is job-hopping.” In fact, the “revolutionary” thing to do is stay at a job for seven years; no one is doing that, she says.
3. They have no loyalty to a company, but they have loyalty to their projects. Gen Y, she claims, is always gunning for the best project and are dedicated to doing well. If you’re a good manager, the loyalty will be to you, she says, because young people are loyal to people who help them.
4. They ignore school. She claims that “Gen Y realizes that getting good grades doesn’t help you in the world” and are “writing posts about how stupid school is.” Is this anything new? This doesn’t seem particularly Gen Y-centric; after all, isn’t the leader of the free world an admittedly proud “Cs get degrees” success story?
5. They are entrepreneurs. With 70% wanting to work for themselves, she says, many view self-employment as a safety net. As a generation scarred by the Boomers’ depleted Enron retirement accounts, this shouldn’t be shocking for any recruiter.
6. They hate entry-level work. She claims that workers used to do “stupid, meaningless work because they wanted to climb the ladder, but now there is no reason for anyone to be paying their dues, because if everyone is job-hopping, it’s not effective.” Spread that work out as much as possible, she recommends, because it is “really arrogant to tell someone to waste their day” with menial work.
7. They want to leave work a lot. Family comes first before work, she says, noting that this very conservative approach to family is correct because “it’s crazy that we have a workplace set up that doesn’t put family first, so we’re lucky to have a new workforce thinking that. We all believe in that.”
8. They demand non-hierarchal structures. Gen Y “grew up on teams and think together as a team, and it is completely annoying because there is a hierarchy for a reason, but if you don’t listen to everyone’s ideas, then why are they there?” She points out that research proves that people who work in diverse teams are more effective. Be honest: if you like being at the top of the pecking order, you’re not being a good leader.
9. They demand constant feedback. “Everyone wants to be told what they’re doing well and what they’re not. It’s time-consuming, because that means you really have to manage people,” she says. Most leaders at the top of corporate America can point to someone who mentored them, she points out. Perhaps Gen Y are living with their parents because their parents are the best mentors of all, though Trunk doesn’t seem to see it that way.
10. They leave. Young people will leave if not happy, while boomers would “stage a protest, sign petitions, and have a sit-in with their company.” She again points out that “Gen Y love their parents, they live with their parents, they are learning from them. They’re doing everything their parents say. They won’t protest the ‘adults’ at the company, so instead, they leave, because their parents’ basement beckons.”

Gen X can take the basement; I expect my boss to have created a cushier spot up top for us coddled Gen Y workers.

A hostile, rousing debate about ethics transpired during the ERE Expo San Diego, and the audience got a first-hand account of user-generated content as Jim Fowler, Jigsaw’s founder and CEO, and Susan Pierce, executive director of the non-profit organization PrivacyActivism, broke apart the privacy puzzle.

Dennis Smith, a recruiting leader known for his wirelessjobs.com blog, served as referee, er, moderator, between the two polar opposite views on the privacy puzzle.

On being outed…

The seven-million business cards is causing disruptive change in the way corporate information is gathered because recruiters can buy and sell contact information on people — who may not have given permission to be contacted, says Pierce.

“I think you should respect people and respect their data. If you want to use the data in a database, ask for it. If I found out I was in Jigsaw and I couldn’t get out, there is nothing to prevent me from changing my data and making it incorrect. Wouldn’t you prefer a database that has 100% good information than a bunch of people who are annoyed and poison the data?” she says.

On opting out…

The lines on opting out of Jigsaw are really vague, says Pierce:

“It’s easy to tell where there is an email address [on a business card], but with a mobile phone, you have to discover that it’s a personal phone number and somehow remove that. If you’ve been added, you might not even know that Jigsaw exists and be able to remove that phone number to begin with. If you haven’t opted in, how can you know to opt out? Facebook just took a lot of heat for that very issue. If you delete your profile, it’s still there no matter what you do. I think they’re starting to change their policy. There is a safety issue; if something goes wrong and there is a data breach among those who requested privacy, it doesn’t matter if the info was suppressed or not. You have put those people in more danger than if they weren’t in that database at all,” she says.

On Jigsaw’s privacy policy…

Openness of information and transparency does far more good than harm, says Fowler:

“Privacy policy is meant for membership. The 8.2 million records have been added by our members, and less than 500 members have asked to be removed. The big issue is around personal data, and what do you consider personal data. We don’t touch non-business information. My mama told me, “Jimbo, there’s three subjects I never want you to discuss at a dinner party: politics, religion, and privacy. I’m kidding, but I think people react to privacy in much the same way as the first two. The key thing is, this is not a legal issue, it’s an ethical issue. What are the opinions of the ethics? Jigsaw always complies with the law,” he says.

On public information online…

For good or bad, Jigsaw is just part of today’s reality, says Fowler:

“You would be amazed how many databases you live on, and you have no clue you’re on there. Unlike Jigsaw, which is very open. This is all part of a broader trend that started with the Internet and has been going on since the beginning of time. Data becomes more open, and the Web has done this beautifully. Whether it’s information from a business card or information about corporations, there’s not a damn thing we can do to stop that,” he says.

On hunting new talent…

Transparency is a good thing for recruiters, says Fowler:

“I believe that most people view it as better to be out, because there is a lot of good that happens. My point is that this transparency is the net effect; the people who don’t know about what jobs are available, it’s impossible to get them that data without it,” says Fowler.

On Jigsaw vs. MySpace…

Parents need not worry about their kids’ information ending up on Jigsaw, says Fowler.

“If people gain access to your kids’ information on Jigsaw, well, they’re asking her about a job; Myspace is the danger.”

On public surveys on privacy…

Most people aren’t bothered by being part of Jigsaw, says Fowler.

“We believe there is a relatively small percentage of people who are concerned. Perhaps 2% or 3% of the world who really care about their business cards. Privacy is a huge issue, but my point is that most people don’t care about this particular piece of data,” he says.

On credit card data…

While Pierce spoke on credit-card security breaches, and how Jigsaw is a part of the bigger problem, one audience member piped in to disagree. Lou Adler interrupted Pierce as she spoke, alleging that Pierce is using the wrong laws for her source of information. He accused Pierce of “using the wrong information here,” while she spoke on victims of identity theft. Meanwhile, Fowler explained that “you absolutely do not need a credit card to get off Jigsaw. All you have to do is email us at privacy@jigsaw.com and confirm who you are and your information will be suppressed.”

-The U.S. economy has been resilient through a tumultous period of several major events packed into a few years: a recession, terrorist attacks, war in Iraq, war in Afghanistan, stock market and accounting scandals, controversial elections that ended up in the Supreme Court, a hurricane, and more.

-Chances are good Democrats will take the White House.

-Campaign promises have no meaning whatsoever until they are passed into law. The American public has far outsized expectations about the president’s influence, mistakenly thinking a president can control the stock market or offer universal healthcare.

-”You don’t mess with the AARP. They’ve got nothing else to do.”

-Increases in the rate of spending growth are often unfairly called “cuts.” If the government was planning on spending $60 million more than last year on a program, and tries to cut it down to $50 million in growth, opponents complain that it’s being “cut.”

-The Federal Reserve is now practicing “preemptive monetary policy” … a new phenomenon aimed at anticipating the state of the economy 8-12 months out.

-Greenspan seemed to be fixated on fighting inflation. Bernanke believes in a “target rate of inflation” … picking a rate and trying to achieve that rate. The Fed seems to be in panic mode.

-Says Moody’s predicts the recession will end around June, and 250,000 jobs will be lost. This would be about a mild recession of about seven months.

The most likely answer to that question is no, because nearly 90 percent of the attendees at the “Workforce Planning” workshop at today’s ERE Expo in San Diego said their companies only had basic workforce planning models in place, and those traditional models don’t forecast human capital needs based upon possible future business scenarios.

“Too often the first step in the workforce planning process happens when the requisition is received, and that’s too late,” said Ed Newman, president of the Newman Group, who facilitated the workshop. Newman says that intermediate-level workforce planning combines workforce analytics with scenario modeling to look at how future business circumstances may impact retention and future hiring needs.

An example of the “what if” modeling strategy cited by Newman was the golden handcuffs scenario, which contemplates the impact of future stock prices on the company’s executive compensation plan. The model projects scenarios where the company’s executives might be vulnerable to poaching based upon future stock option vesting dates at a range of stock prices.

The most advanced level of workforce planning dovetails talent plans with business and financial planning, thus enabling organizations to achieve a comprehensive workforce plan that’s aligned with the business strategy. This high level planning facilitates business decisions. Only two attendees said their companies were currently planning at an advanced level.

An example of when advanced planning capabilities are required is when companies upgrade talent and employee skillsets to meet competitive pressures. A workforce segmentation plan defines the positions that are critical to driving the new strategy and those that are not. From there, the gaps in the workforce are uncovered and employees can be sourced, developed or redirected to meet the new business model.

“It’s important to understand the business strategy at the most finite level, so you can align the workforce plan, identify the gaps, and then build action plans to close them,” says Newman.

All talent gaps are closed in one of four ways according to Newman:

• Build:develop internal talent to fill openings

• Buy: acquire talent externally

• Borrow: augment headcount with contract or temporary labor

• Bounce: planned attrition

In the afternoon, the workshop attendees participated in hands-on exercises led by Mitzi Adwell, talent management practice leader for the Newman Group. Participants forecasted hiring needs, prioritized talent acquisition schedules, authored plans to close workforce gaps, and aligned workforce analytic fundamentals with business plans.

Practical application of the skills seemed to be just what the attendees wanted, because Newman says that all workforce plans must be updated at least quarterly to maintain efficacy, so having a strong comfort with the required skills is vital. Newman further commented that no matter how detailed the analytics, the plans are largely based on estimates, so if it takes HR one year or longer to complete the plan, it will be outdated before it’s implemented. Given the fact that the majority of today’s hot jobs didn’t even exist in 2004, HR professionals need to hone their workforce planning skills, because the only constant in business is that shift happens.