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Economic Forecasts last updated: 10/26/2012
myweb.rollins.edu/wseyfried/forecast.htm

Wells Fargo Securities Economic Forecast (latest monthly forecast, Oct 2012; latest forecast, Oct 26-latest weekly analysis): economic growth = 1.3% in 2012Q4, 0.7% in 2013Q1 and 1.4% in 2013Q2; 2.1% in 2012, 1.3% in 2013, and 1.9% in 2014; PCE inflation = 1.7% in 2012, 1.4% in 2013, 1.9% in 2014; core CPI inflation = 2.1% in 2012, 1.7% in 2013, 2% in 2014; unemployment rate declines to 7.6% by end of 2012 before rising to 8.1% by the third quarter of 2013, finishing 2013 at 8% and declining to 7.5% by the end of 2014

Quarterly economic survey (USA Today – Oct 24, 2012): economic growth = 1.9% in 2012Q4 and 2012Q1, 2.4% in 2013Q2; 2.3% in 2013; unemployment rate = 7.9% by end of 2012, 7.6% in 2013Q4, inflation = 2% in 2012 and 2013

Economic forecasting survey, Oct 2012 (WSJ): economic growth = 1.7% in 2012Q3. 1.8% in 2012Q4, 1.9% in 2013Q1; 1.7% in 2012, 2.3% in 2013, 2.9% in 2014; unemployment = 7.9% at end of 2012, 7.6% at end of 2013, 7.1% at end of 2014; inflation = 2% in 2012, 2.1% in 2013 and 2.4% in 2014; expect interest rate hike by end of 2014; 22% chance of recession in US in the next year, 67% cite downside risk to growth forecast

IMF (Oct-see table 2.2): US economic growth = 2.2% in 2012, 2.1% in 2013; inflation = 2% in 2012, 1.8% in 2013; unemployment averages 8.2% in 2012, 8.1% in 2013; downside risks in the short run from Europe, fiscal cliff; downside risk in the medium term from a rising risk premium if global investors get concerned about US debt issues

Univ. of Michigan Economic Forecast (executive summary – September 19, 2012): economic growth = 1.8% in 2012, 2.4% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014; inflation (CPI) = 1.9% in 2013 and 2.1% in 2014 (core inflation = 1.9% in 2013 and 2014); unemployment rate equals 8.2% by end of 2013 and 7.8% by end of 2014

Fed Forecast as of September 2012: economic growth = 1.7-2% in 2012, 2.5%-3% in 2013, 3-3.8% in 2014 and 2015; long-run economic growth = 2.3-2.5% (note: these are from 4th quarter to 4th quarter); unemployment rate = 8-8.2% in 2012, 7.6-7.9% in 2013, 6.7-7.3% in 2014, 6-6.8% in 2015 (estimates are for 4th quarter of the respective year); natural rate of unemployment = 5.2 to 6%; inflation as measured by PCE index of 1.7 to 1.8% in 2012 (core = 1.7-1.9%), 1.6-2% in 2013 (core = 1.7-2%), and 1.6 to 2% (core = 1.8-2%) in 2014, 1.8-2% (core = 1.9-2%) in 2015

CBO (August 22, blog post): economic growth = 2.25% in second half of 2012, 1.7% in 2013 according to the alternative scenario (-0.5% according to the baseline including -2.9% in 2013H1; baseline assumes the expiration of tax cuts & implementation of spending cuts); unemployment rate = 8% at end of 2013 according to the alternative scenario, 9.1% under the baseline; PCE inflation = 1.4% in 2012; growth in potential GDP = 1.6% for 2013, 2.2% for 2014-2017, 2.4% for 2018-2022

Survey of Professional Forecasters (latest survey Aug 2012): economic growth=1.6% in 2012Q3, 2.2% in 2012Q4; 2.2% in 2012, 2.1% in 2013, 2.7% in 2014, 3.1% in 2015; core inflation (PCE)=1.9% in 2012, 2% in 2013 and 2% in 2014 (overall PCE inflation=1.7% in 2012, 2% in 2013, 2.2% in 2014); unemployment rate=8.1% in 2012Q4; average unemployment rate = 7.9% in 2013, 7.3% in 2014, 7% in 2015; natural rate of unemployment = 6%

OMB (July 2012 – see pdf page9): economic growth = 2.3% in 2012, 2.7% in 2013 and 3.5% in 2014; unemployment (Q4) = 7.9% in 2012, 7.6% in 2013, 7.1% in 2014; inflation = 2.1% in 2012, 1.9% in 2013, 2% in 2014; natural rate of unemployment = 5.4%, growth in potential GDP = 2.5%; see pdf page 11 for comparison with other forecasts

World Bank Global Economic Forecast (June 11, 2012): US economic growth = 2.1% in 2012, 2.4% in 2013;

Livingston Survey (latest survey – June 7, 2012): economic growth = 2.2% in first half of 2012, 2.6% in second half of 2012 and 2.3% in first half of 2013; unemployment rate = 8.1% in June 2012, 8% in Dec 2012 and 7.8% in June 2013; inflation (CPI) = 2.3% for 2012 and 2% for 2013; long-term economic growth = 2.7%, inflation averages 2.5% over the next decade

American Banker’s Association (June 8): economic growth = 2.2% in 2012, 2% in 2013; unemployment = 8% in second half of 2012, 7.8% in 2013

OECD Economic Outlook (May 2012): economic growth in US = 2.4% in 2012, 2.6% in 2013; inflation = 2.3% in 2012, 1.9% in 2013; unemployment rate = 8.1% in 2012, 7.6% in 2013