American businesses will stop shedding jobs by the end of March, says a new report from the National Association of Business Economists.
The organization’s latest outlook is even more hopeful than the one issued just a month ago. Today’s report says that the U.S. economy will grow at an annual 3.2 percent GDP, half a point higher than the NABE’s October forecast.
The economists say the recovery will be lead by theĀ housing turnaround already underway, which will gain momentum next year, and by business investment in equipment, software, and inventories.
“While the recovery has been jobless so far, that should soon change,” said NABE President Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University. “Within the next few months, companies should be adding instead of cutting jobs.”
Consumers, however, are unlikely to open their wallets anytime soon. The 48 economists participating in the survey expect “lackluster consumer spending gains over the coming year.” Instead, consumers will continue saving, averaging 4 percent during 2010.
The unemployment rate, now at 10.2 percent, is expected to hover there through the first half of next year, declining only slightly — to 9.6 percent — by year’s end. The report said that next to the size of the federal deficit, unemployment over the next five years was the biggest concern of the economists on the survey panel.

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Howard Adamsky Nov 23, 2009 at 11:42 pm
Are the unemployed economists optimistic as well? Just wondering.
David Manaster Nov 24, 2009 at 11:01 am
I’m starting to feel pretty hopeful about next year myself.
On a slightly less optimistic note, GDP was revised down today from 3.5% to 2.8% last quarter, so it’s not over yet!
Steve Levy Nov 24, 2009 at 11:43 am
David, from the same article you linked to: “…it’s not really clear that GDP accurately reflects the state of the economy.” Economic analysis is based on assumptions not 100% facts; have to be careful when quoting preliminary data to an audience who likes to take the written word as the Gospel. ;)