Comments on: What Happens If the Recovery Is Very Slow?

By: Keith Halperin

Keith Halperin — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 16:22:04 +0000

Here is some recent data (reposted from a WSJ blog) concerning an estimate of when the various states’ levels of unemployment will return to pre-recession levels:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/07/28/home-prices-jobs-will-come-back-sooner-in-some-states-than-others/

In a nutshell: except for Texas (2011), we’re talking 3-5 years for most large states.

Keith D. Halperin,
Sr. Recruiter and SPHR Emeritus
keithsrj@sbcglobal.net
415.586.8265

By: Jonathan Hefferlin

Jonathan Hefferlin — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 16:24:53 +0000

Lou -
At last look, a bit over 10% of the non-tax cut part of the stimulus package has been injected, albiet things like construction projects may be started, people hired, but monies being spent slowly.

Then there is part of academia claiming $1 in government spending cuts private spending $1, after an initial boost, then the subsequent offset (think Japan in the Nineties), when $1 in tax increases to pay some of it down results in a $3 cut in spending.

Uncharted fiscal territory to be sure, for us at least.

By: Lou Adler

Lou Adler — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 23:10:40 +0000

Brian – I’m not sure whose lead I’m following here, probably a bunch of leading economists who think the stimulus is not working. If it isn’t, then it’s prudent to do some serious contingency planning. It’s clear that phase I cost reductions need to be followed by phase II revenue growth to suggest a recovery is at hand. This revenue growth isn’t here yet, so Phase III restructuring is the next classical approach.

By: brian johnston

brian johnston — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 19:32:02 +0000

Lou- Great Article! Correct me if I am wrong, however it sounds like you are following Raghav’s lead here.. http://www.ere.net/2009/07/08/the-road-ahead/

I any event two thought leaders in the recruiting business, that are highly respected, write “pragmatic” (Academic word!) or how real human beings talk “keeping it real”, is an affirmation of what’s is to come. (slow/painful recovery for majority) BUT, what the article does not say is that the top 10% (Minority) in ANY field will thrive, in FACT the opportunities (A-Talent) will be EXTRAordinary…

Because…. “What the WORLD needs most are people who come alive!” (PASSION/LOVE for there vocation)

Again, GREAT article….

Brian-

By: Dr. Tom Janz

Dr. Tom Janz — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 17:06:57 +0000

Great article, Lou-- really insightful. These likely trends are all the more reason to use accurate, lost-cost, assessment INTEL to screen out the hundreds of pretenders anxiously seeking jobs-- and then to screen in the Stars and Achievers quickly, before they land somewhere else. A Bay-area TV news story recently reported that employers turn to hiring their friends and personal contacts because they can't handle the hundreds of people that respond to even a small posting. This practice only shoots themselves in both feet, since they narrow their talent pools and use less accurate ways of making the picks. We (and others such as PreVisor, Kenexa, DDI, AON, Valtera, Shaker, etc.) offer proven-powerful, science-based tests and behavioral interviewing tools. But only we (GHAS,LLC)offer the numbers (normed score reports) AND confirmed stories of past achievements collected online with no labor cost. And ONLY we calulate and guarantee the full financial performance benefits of hiring faster, more confidently, and with improved brand impact. To expand on one of your most insightful phrases-- "Hire with your Head AND your Wallet."

By: Kathy Lori

Kathy Lori — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 14:18:10 +0000

I venture to guess that a number of the downsizings of late last year and early this year were more of the form “hey, the economy is bad and everyone knows it, so now is the time to get rid of those people we’ve been wanting to get rid of for a long time. With so many other places laying people off, this will disappear off the radar screen pretty quickly.” Yes, I see layoffs have slowed a bit. But I don’t see much in the way of hiring and probably not until late this year at the earliest. So why the big concern about the hiring departments? My last company hired a new engineer maybe every 8 years. What kind of a recruiter could build a business off of that?