Classical Economist Adam Smith
Leading economist Dr. Robert Genetski joined us on April 1 at the ERE Expo 2009 Spring to share his wisdom regarding the current state of the economy.
Genetski began by explaining the classical principles of economics and the factors that dictate how the economy works in modern day society. From there, he proceeded to explain issues that have contributed to our current economic downtown, illuminating exactly how things became as serious as they did.
Of most interest to the audience were Genetski’s predictions on how the economy would affect labor markets in the coming months, the challenges we can still expect to face, and an idea of when we will begin to see the economy recover. Watch these highlights and prepare yourself to take advantage of the inevitable economic recovery.
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Cheryl Barbato Apr 17, 2009 at 9:43 am
Great insight from Dr. Genetski. His notion of understanding the situations your clients are in is key. So how can we help? Educate them. Provide them with knowledge. Talk to them about ways to position themselves for the near future so they are not caught off guard. When the sharp turnaround comes, the best companies will have prepared and will have a leg up on competition. A recent WSJ article provided insight on employers that are looking ahead and recognizing hiring opportunities. You may not be ready to hire, but there are actions that can be taken now to prepare yourself for future success. You can read more about advantages of that here (and find a link WSJ story): http://tinyurl.com/cem8cl
Keith Halperin Apr 17, 2009 at 6:19 pm
Maybe, maybe not (see below). I don’t pretend to know, but I do hope the recovery period will be short. IMHO, we should make sure that when the recovery comes, our skills are not susceptible to being either eliminated, automated, or outsourced away, the “EAO Triple Play”
Cheers,
Keith Halperin
keithsrj@sbcglobal.net
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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/01/opinion/01roubini.html?_r=1
Op-Ed Contributor
The L Curve
NOURIEL ROUBINI
Published: February 28, 2009
LAST year, the debate over how long the recession will last was between those in the consensus who argued that it would be V-shaped — only about eight months long like those in 1990 to 1991 and in 2001 — and those like me who argued that it would last at least three times as long, 24 months, and be more than three times as deep as the previous two.
Today, as we enter the 15th month, it’s obvious that we are already in a painful U-shaped recession that has become global and will last at least until the end of the year — 24 months, the longest since the Great Depression. Even if the gross domestic product grows in 2010, it is likely to be no higher than 1 percent. And at that rate, with the unemployment rate rising toward 10 percent, we will still be substantially in a recession.
Even if appropriate aggressive policy actions were undertaken — monetary and fiscal stimulus, bank clean-up and credit restoration, mortgage debt reduction for insolvent households — the growth rate would not rise closer to 2 percent until 2011. So this recession may last 36 months.
And things could get worse. We now face a 1 in 3 chance that, if appropriate policies are not put in place, this ugly U-shaped recession may turn into a more virulent L-shaped near-depression or stag-deflation (a deadly combination of economic stagnation and price deflation) like the one Japan experienced in the 1990s after its real estate and equity bubbles burst.
Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at the New York University Stern School of Business, and the chairman of an economic consulting firm
This May 9, 2009 at 10:00 pm
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