Comments on: Recruiting Predictions for 2009 http://www.ere.net/2009/01/09/recruiting-predictions-for-2009/ Recruiting News, Recruiting Events, Recruiting Community, Social Recruiting Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:41:59 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Dismal Science : ERE.net http://www.ere.net/2009/01/09/recruiting-predictions-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-10591 Dismal Science : ERE.net Tue, 17 Feb 2009 17:03:49 +0000 http://www.ere.net/?p=5578#comment-10591 [...] down the hatches.  It’s going to get worse before it gets better. tags: economicdata, [...] [...] down the hatches.  It’s going to get worse before it gets better. tags: economicdata, [...]

]]> By: (R)evolution : ERE.net http://www.ere.net/2009/01/09/recruiting-predictions-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-10244 (R)evolution : ERE.net Mon, 26 Jan 2009 16:39:06 +0000 http://www.ere.net/?p=5578#comment-10244 [...] recruiting profession is at a unique moment in time, and it’s not just because of the economy. We are at an inflection point where the tools and tactics that the vast majority of recruiters [...] [...] recruiting profession is at a unique moment in time, and it’s not just because of the economy. We are at an inflection point where the tools and tactics that the vast majority of recruiters [...]

]]> By: We Want to Hear From You! : ERE.net http://www.ere.net/2009/01/09/recruiting-predictions-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-10241 We Want to Hear From You! : ERE.net Mon, 26 Jan 2009 14:27:21 +0000 http://www.ere.net/?p=5578#comment-10241 [...] the past few weeks, you have read several articles with predictions about what to expect in the coming year. Now for your [...] [...] the past few weeks, you have read several articles with predictions about what to expect in the coming year. Now for your [...]

]]> By: Leif Wennerstrom http://www.ere.net/2009/01/09/recruiting-predictions-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-10035 Leif Wennerstrom Wed, 14 Jan 2009 04:21:08 +0000 http://www.ere.net/?p=5578#comment-10035 I have been in recruiting for 13 years. This recession is worse than the 2001-2002 and we'll see many recruiters leave this business in 2009.. for good. The barrier for entry into this industry is so low that anyone can be in business with very little training and investment. The recruiters still employed next January will create value through their relationships rather than just information. Social networks/online communities have allowed professional managers to know and connect with talent in their space. Making a living finding names to contact will slip away in this market.. I have been in recruiting for 13 years. This recession is worse than the 2001-2002 and we’ll see many recruiters leave this business in 2009.. for good. The barrier for entry into this industry is so low that anyone can be in business with very little training and investment.

The recruiters still employed next January will create value through their relationships rather than just information. Social networks/online communities have allowed professional managers to know and connect with talent in their space. Making a living finding names to contact will slip away in this market..

]]> By: Keith Halperin http://www.ere.net/2009/01/09/recruiting-predictions-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-10028 Keith Halperin Tue, 13 Jan 2009 21:02:05 +0000 http://www.ere.net/?p=5578#comment-10028 "Who can predict when or how the recovery will take place? Will it be in six months or three years? Will it be sharp or gradual?" Well, I stand corrected- some people CAN or at least TRY to.... Nobel Prize-winning Economist Paul Krugman (usually thought of as liberal) says in his blog http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/: ............................................................................................................................... January 11, 2009, 12:54 pm More on Romer/Bernstein Still picking over the Romer/Bernstein official evaluation of the Obama economic plan. Again, kudos to the team for producing such a clear, honest assessment. But the more I look at the report, the more I wonder why anyone in the Obama team thinks the plan is adequate. Here’s one way to look at it: R/B show the effects of the plan rapidly fading out during 2011. Yet at the end of 2011 the unemployment rate is still 6.3%. Meanwhile, the CBO estimates the natural rate, aka “full employment,” at just 4.8%. Why does the plan go away with the job undone? Add: By my calculations, the Obama plan is supposed to reduce average unemployment over the next two years from 8.7% to 7.6%; over the next three years, it reduces average unemployment from 8.4% to 7.3%. So it closes around a third of the gap between actual unemployment and the natural rate. Plus, an average rate of unemployment 2.5 percentage points above the natural rate for 3 years, starting with a core inflation rate of 2.5, looks like deflation city to me — and remember, that’s the projection with the Obama plan. ............................................................................................................................... If Krugman is right, then the average rate of unemployment with the stimulus plan is 0.1% HIGHER than it is this month, (1.2% higher than it is this month without the plan), and 0.4% higher with the plan (and 1.5% without the plan) over the next two years. Your thoughts.... Keith keithsrj@sbcglobal.net “Who can predict when or how the recovery will take place? Will it be in six months or three years? Will it be sharp or gradual?”

Well, I stand corrected- some people CAN or at least TRY to….

Nobel Prize-winning Economist Paul Krugman (usually thought of as liberal) says in his blog http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/:

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

January 11, 2009, 12:54 pm

More on Romer/Bernstein

Still picking over the Romer/Bernstein official evaluation of the Obama economic plan. Again, kudos to the team for producing such a clear, honest assessment. But the more I look at the report, the more I wonder why anyone in the Obama team thinks the plan is adequate.
Here’s one way to look at it: R/B show the effects of the plan rapidly fading out during 2011. Yet at the end of 2011 the unemployment rate is still 6.3%. Meanwhile, the CBO estimates the natural rate, aka “full employment,” at just 4.8%. Why does the plan go away with the job undone?
Add: By my calculations, the Obama plan is supposed to reduce average unemployment over the next two years from 8.7% to 7.6%; over the next three years, it reduces average unemployment from 8.4% to 7.3%. So it closes around a third of the gap between actual unemployment and the natural rate. Plus, an average rate of unemployment 2.5 percentage points above the natural rate for 3 years, starting with a core inflation rate of 2.5, looks like deflation city to me — and remember, that’s the projection with the Obama plan.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

If Krugman is right, then the average rate of unemployment with the stimulus plan is 0.1% HIGHER than it is this month, (1.2% higher than it is this month without the plan), and 0.4% higher with the plan (and 1.5% without the plan) over the next two years.
Your thoughts….

Keith keithsrj@sbcglobal.net

]]> By: Keith Halperin http://www.ere.net/2009/01/09/recruiting-predictions-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-10001 Keith Halperin Mon, 12 Jan 2009 20:45:47 +0000 http://www.ere.net/?p=5578#comment-10001 Who can predict when or how the recovery will take place? Will it be in six months or three years? Will it be sharp or gradual? What completely random and unpredictable factors may influence it for better or for worse? What we CAN predict is what can be done right now or in the near future: 1) Analyze your recruitment processes, better yet- have the people actually doing the work analyze your recruitment processes- they know what’s REALLY going on. 2) Determine what areas are the most valuable uses of your staff’s time. 3) Eliminate, automate, or outsource the least valuable parts of recruiting- for example, you shouldn’t have to pay more than about $3500 per month for high quality, cold-call telephone sourcing to identify candidates or hiring managers in companies with a gatekeeper/”name generation,” $1250 per month for internet sourcing, or $800 per month for interview scheduling and coordinating between candidates and the hiring team. 4) If your people can’t effectively do the high value-add work remains, consider training them. 5) If there isn’t enough work remaining to go around, consider reduction-in-work before reduction-in-force. (Those who object to the former are good candidates to for the latter.) 6) As conditions improve, continue following Steps 1-5- don’t go back to paying “*guru” salaries to folks to do lots of “grunt” work. Cheers, Keith Halperin keithsrj@sbcglobal.net * High-touch, high-skill, high-value add, creative work. ** Low-touch, low-skill, low-value add, routine work. Who can predict when or how the recovery will take place? Will it be in six months or three years? Will it be sharp or gradual? What completely random and unpredictable factors may influence it for better or for worse? What we CAN predict is what can be done right now or in the near future:
1) Analyze your recruitment processes, better yet- have the people actually doing the work analyze your recruitment processes- they know what’s REALLY going on.
2) Determine what areas are the most valuable uses of your staff’s time.
3) Eliminate, automate, or outsource the least valuable parts of recruiting- for example, you shouldn’t have to pay more than about $3500 per month for high quality, cold-call telephone sourcing to identify candidates or hiring managers in companies with a gatekeeper/”name generation,” $1250 per month for internet sourcing, or $800 per month for interview scheduling and coordinating between candidates and the hiring team.
4) If your people can’t effectively do the high value-add work remains, consider training them.
5) If there isn’t enough work remaining to go around, consider reduction-in-work before reduction-in-force. (Those who object to the former are good candidates to for the latter.)
6) As conditions improve, continue following Steps 1-5- don’t go back to paying “*guru” salaries to folks to do lots of “grunt” work.

Cheers,
Keith Halperin keithsrj@sbcglobal.net

* High-touch, high-skill, high-value add, creative work.
** Low-touch, low-skill, low-value add, routine work.

]]> By: Steve Gilbert http://www.ere.net/2009/01/09/recruiting-predictions-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-9935 Steve Gilbert Sat, 10 Jan 2009 02:32:44 +0000 http://www.ere.net/?p=5578#comment-9935 David, Thank you for this bold article. I especially liked your take on Social Media in 2009. Because you asked, here are my predictions for 2009 from the perspective of a retained search firm professional committed to seeing the other side of this downturn. 1. A temporary spike in sales positions in May 2009. A substantial piece of my practice involves recruiting Sales Professionals and Sales Leaders and I predict a temporary spike in May 2009 for these types of positions due to turnover...both voluntary and due to performance. Current sales team members will be under more pressure in early 2009 and this will lead to some turnover in March and April. The hiring of each new sales team member will have to be approved by senior executive management. The position will stay vacant during this needs analysis. This brings us to May 2009. 2. Pricing pressure on retained search firms. More competition for each search. Many unknown search firms calling into your clients offering the same service at a reduced fee. Clients may be under tremendous pressure to cut costs, as David mentions in the article, and they very well may start trying out other firms with the hopes of cutting costs. Of course, costs may increase if the less expensive firm fails to deliver and they come back to you to pick up the pieces. 3. Clients may become unwilling to pay retainers due to lack of budget but may be willing to engage a search firm on a contingency basis only. Search firms will hear "There are many great people out there looking so why do I need to pay a retainer?" 4. Search firms will need to at least double their outreach to passive candidates in order to create enough demand for the position. If you used to call 100 passive candidates get ready to call 250. In these times, passive candidates hold on with white knuckles to the position they currently have and do not want to join a company and be the new person if the company runs into tough times. In other words, a passive candidate's tenure in their current role is very valuable to them in these times. 5. Company stability and brand reputation will be a major currency when engaging passive candidates about an opportunity. The best bet may be to call on high performing candidates from smaller companies to join larger, more well-known companies...not the other way around. I look forward to reading everyone's predictions and to tracking if any of our predictions ring true. Thanks again for the article. Steve steve.gilbert@passivecast.com twitter.com/stevengilbert David,

Thank you for this bold article. I especially liked your take on Social Media in 2009.

Because you asked, here are my predictions for 2009 from the perspective of a retained search firm professional committed to seeing the other side of this downturn.

1. A temporary spike in sales positions in May 2009. A substantial piece of my practice involves recruiting Sales Professionals and Sales Leaders and I predict a temporary spike in May 2009 for these types of positions due to turnover…both voluntary and due to performance.
Current sales team members will be under more pressure in early 2009 and this will lead to some turnover in March and April. The hiring of each new sales team member will have to be approved by senior executive management. The position will stay vacant during this needs analysis. This brings us to May 2009.

2. Pricing pressure on retained search firms. More competition for each search. Many unknown search firms calling into your clients offering the same service at a reduced fee. Clients may be under tremendous pressure to cut costs, as David mentions in the article, and they very well may start trying out other firms with the hopes of cutting costs. Of course, costs may increase if the less expensive firm fails to deliver and they come back to you to pick up the pieces.

3. Clients may become unwilling to pay retainers due to lack of budget but may be willing to engage a search firm on a contingency basis only. Search firms will hear “There are many great people out there looking so why do I need to pay a retainer?”

4. Search firms will need to at least double their outreach to passive candidates in order to create enough demand for the position. If you used to call 100 passive candidates get ready to call 250. In these times, passive candidates hold on with white knuckles to the position they currently have and do not want to join a company and be the new person if the company runs into tough times. In other words, a passive candidate’s tenure in their current role is very valuable to them in these times.

5. Company stability and brand reputation will be a major currency when engaging passive candidates about an opportunity. The best bet may be to call on high performing candidates from smaller companies to join larger, more well-known companies…not the other way around.

I look forward to reading everyone’s predictions and to tracking if any of our predictions ring true.

Thanks again for the article.
Steve
steve.gilbert@passivecast.com
twitter.com/stevengilbert

]]> By: Bridget Bits http://www.ere.net/2009/01/09/recruiting-predictions-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-9928 Bridget Bits Fri, 09 Jan 2009 21:21:43 +0000 http://www.ere.net/?p=5578#comment-9928 Good article. Thank you. As dismal as issue #2 and #8 sound, there is a small ray of hope for the survivors. I have started to hear positive rumblings from people in another contracted industry: mortgages. With fewer competitors some operations are already experiencing increases in production and revenues. Obviously this doesn't mean a sustained turn around but isn't it nice to hear some good news once in a while! Good article. Thank you.
As dismal as issue #2 and #8 sound, there is a small ray of hope for the survivors. I have started to hear positive rumblings from people in another contracted industry: mortgages. With fewer competitors some operations are already experiencing increases in production and revenues. Obviously this doesn’t mean a sustained turn around but isn’t it nice to hear some good news once in a while!

]]> By: Susan Strayer http://www.ere.net/2009/01/09/recruiting-predictions-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-9907 Susan Strayer Fri, 09 Jan 2009 14:56:04 +0000 http://www.ere.net/?p=5578#comment-9907 Dave, you're right on in most cases. A few additional thoughts: "Recruiters will try to shift towards the most cost-effective tools." I think this is true but with a caveat. recruiters will try to shift to doing more themselves. What some experts who don't work in big corporations don't understand is that executive teams tell you to cut X% and they don't care how you do it. So the more you can do yourself the better. The other piece I would add is something I am already seeing: vendors are becoming desparate. They will email you 2-3x a day even when you explain you aren't in the market for what you are selling. And they are becoming increasingly unprofessional. I personally won't work with someone who treats me poorly b/c I always try to be polite even if I am not interested in a vendor's service. Dave, you’re right on in most cases. A few additional thoughts:

“Recruiters will try to shift towards the most cost-effective tools.” I think this is true but with a caveat. recruiters will try to shift to doing more themselves. What some experts who don’t work in big corporations don’t understand is that executive teams tell you to cut X% and they don’t care how you do it. So the more you can do yourself the better.

The other piece I would add is something I am already seeing: vendors are becoming desparate. They will email you 2-3x a day even when you explain you aren’t in the market for what you are selling. And they are becoming increasingly unprofessional. I personally won’t work with someone who treats me poorly b/c I always try to be polite even if I am not interested in a vendor’s service.

]]> By: James Durbin http://www.ere.net/2009/01/09/recruiting-predictions-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-9902 James Durbin Fri, 09 Jan 2009 07:42:34 +0000 http://www.ere.net/?p=5578#comment-9902 Is that a picture of you starting your second company? From what I heard yesterday, the age is about right... Is that a picture of you starting your second company? From what I heard yesterday, the age is about right…

]]> By: 090109 Forecasts and Defriending Links | johnsumser.com: Recruiting News and Views http://www.ere.net/2009/01/09/recruiting-predictions-for-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-9898 090109 Forecasts and Defriending Links | johnsumser.com: Recruiting News and Views Fri, 09 Jan 2009 06:28:26 +0000 http://www.ere.net/?p=5578#comment-9898 [...] Recruiting Predictions for 2009Wavy Davy Manaster (check out his picture) offers some predictions. Most of them reflect economic uncertainties. We’ll add 1) Explosion in the adoption of RPOs; 2) Price wars in the job boards; 3) Reductions in sourcers (the technique solves a shortage not a surplus); 4) Excitement about competency models; 5) Recruiting as a full member of the HR Team 6) More emphasis on workforce planning; and, 7) Hype about Total HR.   [...] [...] Recruiting Predictions for 2009Wavy Davy Manaster (check out his picture) offers some predictions. Most of them reflect economic uncertainties. We’ll add 1) Explosion in the adoption of RPOs; 2) Price wars in the job boards; 3) Reductions in sourcers (the technique solves a shortage not a surplus); 4) Excitement about competency models; 5) Recruiting as a full member of the HR Team 6) More emphasis on workforce planning; and, 7) Hype about Total HR.   [...]

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