Comments on: The Housing Crisis, the Economy, and Their Impact on Recruiting http://www.ere.net/2007/08/20/the-housing-crisis-the-economy-and-their-impact-on-recruiting/ Recruiting News, Recruiting Events, Recruiting Community, Social Recruiting Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:41:59 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Managing Recruiting During an Economic Downturn: The Top 10 Action Steps to Take : ERE.net http://www.ere.net/2007/08/20/the-housing-crisis-the-economy-and-their-impact-on-recruiting/comment-page-1/#comment-8086 Managing Recruiting During an Economic Downturn: The Top 10 Action Steps to Take : ERE.net Mon, 20 Oct 2008 10:00:49 +0000 http://www.ere.net/2007/08/20/the-housing-crisis-the-economy-and-their-impact-on-recruiting/#comment-8086 [...] are a regular reader of my articles, you know that I warned of the upcoming downturn as early as August 2007. However, if you missed that “heads up” and have been in recruiting for more than a few years, [...] [...] are a regular reader of my articles, you know that I warned of the upcoming downturn as early as August 2007. However, if you missed that “heads up” and have been in recruiting for more than a few years, [...]

]]> By: Jonathan Hefferlin http://www.ere.net/2007/08/20/the-housing-crisis-the-economy-and-their-impact-on-recruiting/comment-page-1/#comment-3068 Jonathan Hefferlin Tue, 21 Aug 2007 02:45:00 +0000 http://www.ere.net/2007/08/20/the-housing-crisis-the-economy-and-their-impact-on-recruiting/#comment-3068 You need to further analyze any stats - Housing prices are up in many areas, but the per sqare foot price is down. Take Orange Co (1st co S. of LA) - a year ago median on a used detached $705k, 1500-1600 sq. feet in a decent area, miles from the ocean. Slipped to $660k, climbed back to $735k during July - but now you are getting 1800-2000' i.e. cheaper houses are selling slower presumably due to sub prime mess hindering mostly the less affluent. i.e. your $735k house may have sold for $800k a year ago. The rich seem to get richer in these times, so John Templeton's statement recently real estate could drop up to 50% would seemingly refer to the $700k property that has almost trippled in recent years, belied by recent sales trends. Surely he can't be referring to the $223k national average home. And I haven't relocated anyone since 9-11 and used to do several a year. -Jon You need to further analyze any stats – Housing prices are up in many areas, but the per sqare foot price is down. Take Orange Co (1st co S. of LA) – a year ago median on a used detached $705k, 1500-1600 sq. feet in a decent area, miles from the ocean. Slipped to $660k, climbed back to $735k during July – but now you are getting 1800-2000′ i.e. cheaper houses are selling slower presumably due to sub prime mess hindering mostly the less affluent. i.e. your $735k house may have sold for $800k a year ago.

The rich seem to get richer in these times, so John Templeton’s statement recently real estate could drop up to 50% would seemingly refer to the $700k property that has almost trippled in recent years, belied by recent sales trends. Surely he can’t be referring to the $223k national average home.

And I haven’t relocated anyone since 9-11 and used to do several a year. -Jon

]]> By: Jonathan Hefferlin http://www.ere.net/2007/08/20/the-housing-crisis-the-economy-and-their-impact-on-recruiting/comment-page-1/#comment-3067 Jonathan Hefferlin Mon, 20 Aug 2007 05:14:00 +0000 http://www.ere.net/2007/08/20/the-housing-crisis-the-economy-and-their-impact-on-recruiting/#comment-3067 Excellent. Except the part inferring $2 Trillion in sub-prime loans needing to be written down. 1st,$1 Trillion worth will be RESET from this past July thru June of next year, or about 5 million loans (& not all sub-prime), probably averaging $200k or less (some still actually do make down payments) given the national average of $223k per house sold. Maybe 20% (estimates have ranged to as high as 23%) will be repo-ed, -or a million houses. Inventory in the last year rose by over 2 million houses (to 8.8 mo inventory), prices only fell 2-3%. Multi-Trillion $ #s will only add to dizzy fluctuations in the Markets accelerated July 16 when a rule in place to prevent shorting declining markets since 1929 was reversed, arming computer aided programs and causing an average Dow swing of 265 a day so far this month. Incidentally, repos from resets will drop dramatically starting in July of '08 - from 420k to 75k houses a month. We need to keep things in perspective and also realize, some houses will actually net a profit to the bank, none will drop to zero and most will net somewhere inbetween, but fairly close to what was owed. But the problem will linger into the latter part of next year until demand catches up with supply and inventories drop, and housing will be a positive rather than a negative. Excellent.

Except the part inferring $2 Trillion in sub-prime loans needing to be written down. 1st,$1 Trillion worth will be RESET from this past July thru June of next year, or about 5 million loans (& not all sub-prime), probably averaging $200k or less (some still actually do make down payments) given the national average of $223k per house sold. Maybe 20% (estimates have ranged to as high as 23%) will be repo-ed, -or a million houses. Inventory in the last year rose by over 2 million houses (to 8.8 mo inventory), prices only fell 2-3%.

Multi-Trillion $ #s will only add to dizzy fluctuations in the Markets accelerated July 16 when a rule in place to prevent shorting declining markets since 1929 was reversed, arming computer aided programs and causing an average Dow swing of 265 a day so far this month.

Incidentally, repos from resets will drop dramatically starting in July of ‘08 – from 420k to 75k houses a month. We need to keep things in perspective and also realize, some houses will actually net a profit to the bank, none will drop to zero and most will net somewhere inbetween, but fairly close to what was owed.
But the problem will linger into the latter part of next year until demand catches up with supply and inventories drop, and housing will be a positive rather than a negative.

]]> By: Jonathan Hefferlin http://www.ere.net/2007/08/20/the-housing-crisis-the-economy-and-their-impact-on-recruiting/comment-page-1/#comment-3066 Jonathan Hefferlin Mon, 20 Aug 2007 05:13:00 +0000 http://www.ere.net/2007/08/20/the-housing-crisis-the-economy-and-their-impact-on-recruiting/#comment-3066 Excellent. Except the part inferring $2 Trillion in sub-prime loans needing to be written down. 1st,$1 Trillion worth will be RESET from this past July thru June of next year, or about 5 million loans (& not all sub-prime), probably averaging $200k or less (some still actually do make down payments) given the national average of $223k per house sold. Maybe 20% (estimates have ranged to as high as 23%) will be repo-ed, -or a million houses. Inventory in the last year rose by over 2 million houses (to 8.8 mo inventory), prices only fell 2-3%. Multi-Trillion $ #s will only add to dizzy fluctuations in the Markets accelerated July 16 when a rule in place to prevent shorting declining markets since 1929 was reversed, arming computer aided programs and causing an average Dow swing of 265 a day so far this month. Incidentally, repos from resets will drop dramatically starting in July of '08 - from 420k to 75k houses a month. We need to keep things in perspective and also realize, some houses will actually net a profit to the bank, none will drop to zero and most will net somewhere inbetween, but fairly close to what was owed. But the problem will linger into the latter part of next year until demand catches up with supply and inventories drop, and housing will be a positive rather than a negative. Excellent.

Except the part inferring $2 Trillion in sub-prime loans needing to be written down. 1st,$1 Trillion worth will be RESET from this past July thru June of next year, or about 5 million loans (& not all sub-prime), probably averaging $200k or less (some still actually do make down payments) given the national average of $223k per house sold. Maybe 20% (estimates have ranged to as high as 23%) will be repo-ed, -or a million houses. Inventory in the last year rose by over 2 million houses (to 8.8 mo inventory), prices only fell 2-3%.

Multi-Trillion $ #s will only add to dizzy fluctuations in the Markets accelerated July 16 when a rule in place to prevent shorting declining markets since 1929 was reversed, arming computer aided programs and causing an average Dow swing of 265 a day so far this month.

Incidentally, repos from resets will drop dramatically starting in July of ‘08 – from 420k to 75k houses a month. We need to keep things in perspective and also realize, some houses will actually net a profit to the bank, none will drop to zero and most will net somewhere inbetween, but fairly close to what was owed.
But the problem will linger into the latter part of next year until demand catches up with supply and inventories drop, and housing will be a positive rather than a negative.

]]> By: Maureen Sharib http://www.ere.net/2007/08/20/the-housing-crisis-the-economy-and-their-impact-on-recruiting/comment-page-1/#comment-3065 Maureen Sharib Mon, 20 Aug 2007 04:35:00 +0000 http://www.ere.net/2007/08/20/the-housing-crisis-the-economy-and-their-impact-on-recruiting/#comment-3065 Real Estate 'Oases': Markets Thriving in Tough Times Home prices may be flat or anemic in many parts of the country, but not in as many places as you might assume from listening to the evening TV newscasts. Prices are up in dozens of metropolitan markets -- two out of every three, according to the latest study-and within most metropolitan areas there are oasis-like micromarkets that are outperforming national and regional trends. <a href='http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20070820_oasesthrive.htm'>Full Story</a> Real Estate ‘Oases’: Markets Thriving in Tough Times

Home prices may be flat or anemic in many parts of the country, but not in as many places as you might assume from listening to the evening TV newscasts. Prices are up in dozens of metropolitan markets — two out of every three, according to the latest study-and within most metropolitan areas there are oasis-like micromarkets that are outperforming national and regional trends.

Full Story

]]> By: Shanil Kaderali http://www.ere.net/2007/08/20/the-housing-crisis-the-economy-and-their-impact-on-recruiting/comment-page-1/#comment-3064 Shanil Kaderali Sun, 19 Aug 2007 04:25:00 +0000 http://www.ere.net/2007/08/20/the-housing-crisis-the-economy-and-their-impact-on-recruiting/#comment-3064 I work for a fortune 100 firm. Relocation is down significantly. It has already shown impact to our recruitment of executive talent. The housing crisis is a concern. In some markets, ex, LA & SF, it's not as severe (not yet however with rate increases for jumbo mortages, we expect to see challenges) BofA released a report indicating that $700 billion in ARMs will re-set in 2008. The credit crunch has slowed down a lot of acquisition activity. I don't believe sky is falling and I worked for a major tech company during the 2001 downturn so I think the US economy will be fine but there'll be a period of correction. The sourcing and branding challenges to recruit the top talent will take greater focus as talent becomes less willing to be mobile and virtual management skills in both recruitment and for hiring managers will become key. I work for a fortune 100 firm. Relocation is down significantly. It has already shown impact to our recruitment of executive talent.

The housing crisis is a concern. In some markets, ex, LA & SF, it’s not as severe (not yet however with rate increases for jumbo mortages, we expect to see challenges)

BofA released a report indicating that $700 billion in ARMs will re-set in 2008. The credit crunch has slowed down a lot of acquisition activity.

I don’t believe sky is falling and I worked for a major tech company during the 2001 downturn so I think the US economy will be fine but there’ll be a period of correction.

The sourcing and branding challenges to recruit the top talent will take greater focus as talent becomes less willing to be mobile and virtual management skills in both recruitment and for hiring managers will become key.

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